{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6ddd2ea-e80e-427e-9111-cda1e64c348d", "symbol": "SML", "name": "Strategic Minerals Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.566, "architecture_energy": 60.293, "architecture_maturity": 15.815, "architecture_confidence": 51.783, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.88, "rotation_up": 17.42, "upward_expansion": 21.54, "deceleration": 43.52, "rotation_down": 72.14, "downward_expansion": 65.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.035767, 0.038473, 0.043648, 0.044161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0355, "trend_reference": 0.041652, "distance_from_trend": -0.147693, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.010827, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.27896, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.680997, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014286, "excess_performance": -0.03695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147693, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.27032, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.27896, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -4.358271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.19681, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.894023, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014286, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.460184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30009817, "relative_activity": 0.29187, "balance": 0.460184, "dry_up": 0.442928, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.197486, "annualized_volatility": 0.978513, "from_high_reference": -0.513699, "from_low_reference": 12.148148 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.041652, "fair_value_reference": 0.010827, "structural_low": 0.029, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.333333, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.318439, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": 0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.306667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.287473, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.306667, "worst_return": 0.306667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.666667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.668418, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": 0.666667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.966667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.888912, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.966667, "worst_return": 0.966667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.404762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127273, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.123077, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.296875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.578947, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 2.684211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.294118, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014286, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.002, "volume": 7347975, "typical_volume": 18797770.0, "trend": 0.00211, "fair_value": 0.003422, "relative_strength": -13.312472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"fair_value": 0.010176, "relative_strength": 29.364944, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.015569, "energy": 37.09282, "activity_lines": [ 0.039987, 0.043196, 0.047126, 0.045081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.036, "volume": 52284923, "typical_volume": 111089778.7, "trend": 0.040268, "fair_value": 0.010397, "relative_strength": 28.471822, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.955785, "energy": 50.761199, "activity_lines": [ 0.038047, 0.041385, 0.046003, 0.044853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.035, "volume": 34158554, "typical_volume": 109441500.05, "trend": 0.040968, "fair_value": 0.010612, "relative_strength": 20.834255, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.593048, "energy": 55.649136, "activity_lines": [ 0.03664, 0.039756, 0.044795, 0.044513 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0355, "volume": 30009817, "typical_volume": 102818964.4, "trend": 0.041652, "fair_value": 0.010827, "relative_strength": 19.680997, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.566007, "energy": 60.293448, "activity_lines": [ 0.035767, 0.038473, 0.043648, 0.044161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }