{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6e4b86e-a71e-4e51-b9fe-b10be5950751", "symbol": "EEMU", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI EMU Min TE UCITS ETF \u2013 EUR", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.809, "architecture_energy": 60.85, "architecture_maturity": 54.674, "architecture_confidence": 75.963, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.94, "rotation_up": 53.56, "upward_expansion": 80.84, "deceleration": 66.23, "rotation_down": 26.81, "downward_expansion": 9.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.702, 20.615145, 20.214033, 19.830884 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.125, "trend_reference": 19.438367, "distance_from_trend": 0.086768, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.104383, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.311755, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.480699, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.109157, "excess_performance": 0.055845, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086768, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042376, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.311755, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071848, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.054807, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005556, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109157, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.093222, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 342617, "relative_activity": 1.209677, "balance": 1.093222, "dry_up": 0.867172, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02286, "annualized_volatility": 0.172372, "from_high_reference": -0.005414, "from_low_reference": 0.258639 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.438367, "fair_value_reference": 16.104383, "structural_low": 17.198, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.008459, "positive_rate": 0.575, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": 0.004398, "regime_survival": 0.775, "best_return": 0.069545, "worst_return": -0.100297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.024221, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.013821, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.116743, "worst_return": -0.044925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.05104, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.012924, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.130963, "worst_return": -0.174304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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20.485001, "volume": 689694, "typical_volume": 313538.3, "trend": 19.163567, "fair_value": 15.91287, "relative_strength": 7.785675, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.663382, "energy": 82.249755, "activity_lines": [ 20.584333, 20.311891, 19.758867, 19.479746 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.299999, "volume": 393324, "typical_volume": 323792.55, "trend": 19.2293, "fair_value": 15.958306, "relative_strength": 6.574561, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.930323, "energy": 66.332052, "activity_lines": [ 20.505333, 20.3602, 19.852529, 19.553065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.48, "volume": 133755, "typical_volume": 309048.8, "trend": 19.298633, "fair_value": 16.003793, "relative_strength": 6.841191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.820552, "energy": 55.090189, "activity_lines": [ 20.484333, 20.421636, 19.959724, 19.633755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.594999, "volume": 112741, "typical_volume": 289464.2, "trend": 19.365867, "fair_value": 16.052261, "relative_strength": 5.50613, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.442449, "energy": 49.962953, "activity_lines": [ 20.511666, 20.478127, 20.067214, 19.717391 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.125, "volume": 342617, "typical_volume": 283230.15, "trend": 19.438367, "fair_value": 16.104383, "relative_strength": 5.480699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.808882, "energy": 60.850347, "activity_lines": [ 20.702, 20.615145, 20.214033, 19.830884 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }