{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6f0c175-0c94-433d-b76d-214b622bdc2c", "symbol": "AMGO", "name": "Amigo Resources PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.871, "architecture_energy": 33.294, "architecture_maturity": 9.26, "architecture_confidence": 44.806, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.98, "rotation_up": 21.35, "upward_expansion": 13.34, "deceleration": 48.81, "rotation_down": 53.98, "downward_expansion": 52.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.02045, 0.021418, 0.023491, 0.024069 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.022, "trend_reference": 0.023548, "distance_from_trend": -0.065751, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.00737, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.985204, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 35.5667, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.173333, "excess_performance": 0.122098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065751, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.314448, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.985204, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.113279, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.355667, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.559852, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.151618, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18110625, "relative_activity": 1.1446, "balance": 0.151618, "dry_up": 3.208327, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.283147, "annualized_volatility": 1.001882, "from_high_reference": -0.45, "from_low_reference": 13.193548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.023548, "fair_value_reference": 0.00737, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.050837, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105398, "worst_return": -0.010573, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.01154, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004494, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.682927, "worst_return": -0.666667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.175184, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.183796, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.195122, "worst_return": -0.291774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": 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"volume": 5311696, "typical_volume": 8004415.7, "trend": 0.021857, "fair_value": 0.007033, "relative_strength": 47.900362, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.842131, "energy": 9.680845, "activity_lines": [ 0.02325, 0.024559, 0.025595, 0.024723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.02, "volume": 134447879, "typical_volume": 13824938.9, "trend": 0.022365, "fair_value": 0.007105, "relative_strength": 34.851147, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.840806, "energy": 26.464073, "activity_lines": [ 0.021917, 0.023514, 0.025018, 0.024603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0155, "volume": 27338070, "typical_volume": 14655246.15, "trend": 0.022582, "fair_value": 0.007169, "relative_strength": 1.59278, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.948281, "energy": 50.388564, "activity_lines": [ 0.019417, 0.021832, 0.024061, 0.02416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.02225, "volume": 23160532, "typical_volume": 15417991.6, "trend": 0.023082, "fair_value": 0.00727, "relative_strength": 40.691915, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.372073, "energy": 42.329212, "activity_lines": [ 0.019883, 0.021605, 0.023785, 0.024139 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.022, "volume": 18110625, "typical_volume": 15822663.4, "trend": 0.023548, "fair_value": 0.00737, "relative_strength": 35.5667, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.87101, "energy": 33.293512, "activity_lines": [ 0.02045, 0.021418, 0.023491, 0.024069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }