{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6f0f4bb-36d0-4f62-9ce6-3448de0bbb97", "symbol": "RIGL", "name": "Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.534, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.791, "architecture_energy": 45.79, "architecture_maturity": 40.583, "architecture_confidence": 63.712, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.54, "rotation_up": 53.51, "upward_expansion": 75.29, "deceleration": 67.15, "rotation_down": 22.51, "downward_expansion": 10.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.796, 38.340182, 35.305714, 33.784151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.17, "trend_reference": 32.929, "distance_from_trend": 0.219897, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.795744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.84302, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.381553, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.176281, "excess_performance": -0.011173, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.219897, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058961, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.84302, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.542028, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.303898, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.176281, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.170458, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2066761, "relative_activity": 1.163339, "balance": 3.170458, "dry_up": 0.921473, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105365, "annualized_volatility": 0.570915, "from_high_reference": -0.231049, "from_low_reference": 0.61002 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.929, "fair_value_reference": 21.795744, "structural_low": 24.95, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.098822, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.096089, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.430331, "worst_return": -0.317092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.201856, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.203404, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.110095, "worst_return": -0.394904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.151592, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.176603, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081011, "worst_return": -0.415313, "sufficient": true 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"activity_lines": [ 36.181333, 33.549455, 31.508619, 31.806989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.55, "volume": 2290390, "typical_volume": 1889396.75, "trend": 33.396, "fair_value": 21.128051, "relative_strength": 7.25382, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.166503, "energy": 77.779803, "activity_lines": [ 38.824667, 35.521273, 32.640571, 32.401376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.54, "volume": 1474738, "typical_volume": 1880309.5, "trend": 33.361, "fair_value": 21.30459, "relative_strength": 5.705015, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.233951, "energy": 75.865305, "activity_lines": [ 39.956667, 36.888545, 33.547333, 32.86228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.74, "volume": 2020065, "typical_volume": 1827426.7, "trend": 33.118667, "fair_value": 21.454846, "relative_strength": -3.254645, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.540723, "energy": 66.298413, "activity_lines": [ 39.309333, 37.301273, 34.064571, 33.08028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.81, "volume": 986706, "typical_volume": 1764494.05, "trend": 32.951333, "fair_value": 21.612603, "relative_strength": -4.058824, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.759298, "energy": 51.111606, "activity_lines": [ 38.43, 37.586182, 34.551, 33.31843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.17, "volume": 2066761, "typical_volume": 1776576.2, "trend": 32.929, "fair_value": 21.795744, "relative_strength": -0.381553, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.791317, "energy": 45.790498, "activity_lines": [ 38.796, 38.340182, 35.305714, 33.784151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }