{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6f7b9e8-1921-4ee0-875b-ea4a3c1fe989", "symbol": "WAR", "name": "WAM Strategic Value Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.774, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.065, "architecture_energy": 14.059, "architecture_maturity": 52.118, "architecture_confidence": 75.053, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.91, "rotation_up": 37.31, "upward_expansion": 19.63, "deceleration": 42.93, "rotation_down": 13.46, "downward_expansion": 51.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.112667, 1.102636, 1.106444, 1.110273 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.135, "trend_reference": 1.114684, "distance_from_trend": 0.018226, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.021758, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.110831, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.842409, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.03275, "excess_performance": -0.030956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018226, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004363, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.110831, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062409, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03275, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.793779, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1061380, "relative_activity": 1.687274, "balance": 0.793779, "dry_up": 1.182951, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02101, "annualized_volatility": 0.134267, "from_high_reference": -0.023426, "from_low_reference": 0.10095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.114684, "fair_value_reference": 1.021758, "structural_low": 1.055243, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009174, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.000208, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.076258, "worst_return": -0.022523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.045405, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01167, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056866, "worst_return": 0.033943, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.106443, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.041761, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107671, "worst_return": 0.105216, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1.114229, "fair_value": 1.017085, "relative_strength": 0.80036, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.145627, "energy": 28.482878, "activity_lines": [ 1.095667, 1.095091, 1.105868, 1.110713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.1, "volume": 869579, "typical_volume": 632195.8, "trend": 1.113938, "fair_value": 1.01854, "relative_strength": 0.525893, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.472215, "energy": 19.648382, "activity_lines": [ 1.099, 1.094909, 1.104854, 1.109795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.1, "volume": 586124, "typical_volume": 626292.95, "trend": 1.113647, "fair_value": 1.020023, "relative_strength": -1.798481, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.584885, "energy": 21.066551, "activity_lines": [ 1.101, 1.095364, 1.103927, 1.108896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.135, "volume": 1061380, "typical_volume": 629050.15, "trend": 1.114684, "fair_value": 1.021758, "relative_strength": -1.842409, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.064707, "energy": 14.059466, "activity_lines": [ 1.112667, 1.102636, 1.106444, 1.110273 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }