{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f6fd32da-78ec-44eb-88d5-4e30bb0e2a3f", "symbol": "RIO", "name": "Rio2 Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.127, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.769, "architecture_energy": 7.331, "architecture_maturity": 24.861, "architecture_confidence": 46.126, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.61, "rotation_up": 33.24, "upward_expansion": 25.69, "deceleration": 35.82, "rotation_down": 26.56, "downward_expansion": 55.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.928, 2.827273, 2.833, 2.86028 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.54, "trend_reference": 2.967, "distance_from_trend": 0.193124, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.303462, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.715845, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.828458, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.12381, "excess_performance": 0.003388, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.193124, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006445, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.715845, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183441, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.188285, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054151, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12381, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.693668, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8220800, "relative_activity": 1.873635, "balance": 0.693668, "dry_up": 1.057567, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101695, "annualized_volatility": 0.802807, "from_high_reference": -0.134474, "from_low_reference": 1.269231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.967, "fair_value_reference": 1.303462, "structural_low": 2.35, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.078947, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.080159, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.083333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.095238, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.117331, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.190476, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.157895, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.143142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.315789, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.337093, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.238423, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.578947, "worst_return": 0.095238, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.352941, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121212, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.351351, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.183673, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.21875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 3.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3219, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.174603, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.21, "volume": 253600, "typical_volume": 515705.0, "trend": 0.210333, "fair_value": 0.517885, "relative_strength": 11.863778, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.456331, "energy": 14.779674, 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3.01, "fair_value": 1.252051, "relative_strength": -7.964991, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.161398, "energy": 33.0329, "activity_lines": [ 2.697333, 2.744, 2.790429, 2.872172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.64, "volume": 2884500, "typical_volume": 5027750.0, "trend": 2.99, "fair_value": 1.267308, "relative_strength": -7.579677, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.283343, "energy": 27.432207, "activity_lines": [ 2.678667, 2.712364, 2.775238, 2.848301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.6, "volume": 3280700, "typical_volume": 4646545.0, "trend": 2.964333, "fair_value": 1.282372, "relative_strength": -9.038813, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.741298, "energy": 33.324263, "activity_lines": [ 2.648667, 2.680545, 2.758952, 2.82314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.54, "volume": 8220800, "typical_volume": 4387620.0, "trend": 2.967, "fair_value": 1.303462, "relative_strength": 18.828458, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.769152, "energy": 7.33067, "activity_lines": [ 2.928, 2.827273, 2.833, 2.86028 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }