{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7087caa-ad9b-424d-9325-47dce96269a0", "symbol": "UC03", "name": "UBS Core MSCI USA UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.773, "architecture_energy": 66.978, "architecture_maturity": 63.023, "architecture_confidence": 75.658, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.04, "rotation_up": 55.22, "upward_expansion": 82.06, "deceleration": 68.52, "rotation_down": 28.11, "downward_expansion": 11.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 184.312002, 183.32991, 181.573216, 177.956303 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 189.315002, "trend_reference": 173.832402, "distance_from_trend": 0.089066, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 142.208603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.331249, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.345596, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.133714, "excess_performance": 0.082479, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089066, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035009, "read": "Rising" 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155.460007, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.01734, "positive_rate": 0.682927, "directional_follow_through": 0.682927, "median_excess_return": 0.005495, "regime_survival": 0.780488, "best_return": 0.063796, "worst_return": -0.092384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.054214, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.014348, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.134476, "worst_return": -0.06805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.093821, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.028991, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.171273, "worst_return": -0.165309, "sufficient": true }, { 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66.591645, "activity_lines": [ 182.420336, 181.264639, 175.438914, 172.79862 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 179.509995, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5632.35, "trend": 170.468745, "fair_value": 139.229023, "relative_strength": 1.805825, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.95428, "energy": 60.762271, "activity_lines": [ 181.397667, 181.253456, 176.206311, 173.411416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 182.929993, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5599.05, "trend": 171.006331, "fair_value": 139.736229, "relative_strength": 2.082013, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.389095, "energy": 58.349764, "activity_lines": [ 181.695997, 181.749545, 177.239787, 174.215368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 184.225006, "volume": 16458, "typical_volume": 6339.9, "trend": 171.629878, "fair_value": 140.236003, "relative_strength": 4.508942, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.522527, "energy": 64.903759, "activity_lines": [ 182.518999, 182.30991, 178.316716, 175.068185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 182.375, "volume": 1160, "typical_volume": 3563.8, "trend": 172.184294, "fair_value": 140.718703, "relative_strength": 2.423825, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.71439, "energy": 60.445545, "activity_lines": [ 182.607666, 182.389728, 179.134239, 175.761419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 181.630005, "volume": 3810, "typical_volume": 3473.05, "trend": 172.651014, "fair_value": 141.190484, "relative_strength": 0.717278, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.455184, "energy": 60.05856, "activity_lines": [ 182.379668, 182.279092, 179.805025, 176.37082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 181.059998, "volume": 3946, "typical_volume": 3204.9, "trend": 173.148991, "fair_value": 141.668355, "relative_strength": -0.817524, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.175337, "energy": 50.188591, "activity_lines": [ 182.021668, 182.043455, 180.342882, 176.913335 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 189.315002, "volume": 5404, "typical_volume": 3354.1, "trend": 173.832402, "fair_value": 142.208603, "relative_strength": 3.345596, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.77286, "energy": 66.97753, "activity_lines": [ 184.312002, 183.32991, 181.573216, 177.956303 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }