{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f70cc78f-8d24-4fad-8c4b-756426c04320", "symbol": "CEAB3", "name": "C&A Modas S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.544, "architecture_energy": 78.517, "architecture_maturity": 29.432, "architecture_confidence": 86.203, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.62, "rotation_up": 10.18, "upward_expansion": 17.96, "deceleration": 37.18, "rotation_down": 76.61, "downward_expansion": 93.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.443333, 9.914545, 10.555571, 10.968624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.18, "trend_reference": 11.374, "distance_from_trend": -0.192896, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.740135, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.145262, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.789827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.296012, "excess_performance": -0.238964, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192896, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101229, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.145262, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.336094, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.327898, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030148, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.296012, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.466387, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59422100, "relative_activity": 1.940221, "balance": 0.466387, "dry_up": 1.194302, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107843, "annualized_volatility": 0.452337, "from_high_reference": -0.49209, "from_low_reference": 0.033784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.374, "fair_value_reference": 10.740135, "structural_low": 8.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.047544, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.029192, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.415255, "worst_return": -0.328859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.082145, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.07417, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.59396, "worst_return": -0.379545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.181818, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.187073, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.047414, "worst_return": -0.496567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 30768505.0, "trend": 11.526667, "fair_value": 10.696222, "relative_strength": -34.848515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.294827, "energy": 69.042369, "activity_lines": [ 10.026, 10.378, 10.927286, 11.248258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.44, "volume": 29955600, "typical_volume": 29531365.0, "trend": 11.427667, "fair_value": 10.720657, "relative_strength": -34.030745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.552523, "energy": 72.12355, "activity_lines": [ 9.725333, 10.154, 10.74981, 11.113634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.18, "volume": 59422100, "typical_volume": 30626455.0, "trend": 11.374, "fair_value": 10.740135, "relative_strength": -32.789827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.543935, "energy": 78.516991, "activity_lines": [ 9.443333, 9.914545, 10.555571, 10.968624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }