{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f70e483c-0b08-461e-a68a-be1502616931", "symbol": "DNR", "name": "Industrie De Nora S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.047, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.303, "architecture_energy": 24.057, "architecture_maturity": 10.763, "architecture_confidence": 57.203, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.23, "rotation_up": 17.48, "upward_expansion": 8.54, "deceleration": 56.14, "rotation_down": 55.44, "downward_expansion": 45.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.421333, 6.570636, 6.683869, 6.603403 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.5, "trend_reference": 6.632168, "distance_from_trend": -0.019928, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.259756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.298038, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.426529, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043075, "excess_performance": -0.213967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019928, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017181, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.298038, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00323, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184265, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119527, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043075, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.426605, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1199964, "relative_activity": 1.251178, "balance": 1.426605, "dry_up": 1.709581, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086606, "annualized_volatility": 0.425504, "from_high_reference": -0.230106, "from_low_reference": 0.254371 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.632168, "fair_value_reference": 9.259756, "structural_low": 5.181878, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033112, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.052208, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.298496, "worst_return": -0.129726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.031118, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053524, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.210799, "worst_return": -0.148563, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.06369, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.198984, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099112, "worst_return": -0.226492, "sufficient": 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11.634368, "activity_lines": [ 6.939333, 7.026958, 6.714003, 6.690509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.645, "volume": 1214547, "typical_volume": 934007.85, "trend": 6.737901, "fair_value": 9.583947, "relative_strength": -16.630378, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.400022, "energy": 8.821283, "activity_lines": [ 6.814667, 6.965924, 6.725283, 6.684008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.465, "volume": 1180115, "typical_volume": 894224.35, "trend": 6.718607, "fair_value": 9.498403, "relative_strength": -17.31052, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.121235, "energy": 16.968786, "activity_lines": [ 6.665, 6.862218, 6.721552, 6.666401 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.095, "volume": 1151791, "typical_volume": 891269.55, "trend": 6.683368, "fair_value": 9.413323, "relative_strength": -21.432404, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.635148, "energy": 25.065191, "activity_lines": [ 6.438667, 6.704182, 6.683183, 6.626168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.49, "volume": 3026540, "typical_volume": 1006564.4, "trend": 6.659489, "fair_value": 9.337679, "relative_strength": -16.551949, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.786875, "energy": 22.47504, "activity_lines": [ 6.421, 6.631364, 6.683572, 6.613693 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.5, "volume": 1199964, "typical_volume": 959067.0, "trend": 6.632168, "fair_value": 9.259756, "relative_strength": -18.426529, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.303099, "energy": 24.056948, "activity_lines": [ 6.421333, 6.570636, 6.683869, 6.603403 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }