{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f70ef0da-1171-4f67-bc29-dad1ea416755", "symbol": "MOAT", "name": "VANECK MORNINGSTAR WIDE MOAT ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.693, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.695, "architecture_energy": 80.899, "architecture_maturity": 17.088, "architecture_confidence": 69.096, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.0, "rotation_up": 78.34, "upward_expansion": 92.92, "deceleration": 42.27, "rotation_down": 10.81, "downward_expansion": 17.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.422667, 106.762545, 104.613857, 103.539699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 112.27, "trend_reference": 103.132, "distance_from_trend": 0.088605, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 91.331334, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.22926, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.773005, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063868, "excess_performance": -0.061757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088605, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009292, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.22926, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088282, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01773, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068329, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063868, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.345834, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3740442, "relative_activity": 0.867865, "balance": 1.345834, "dry_up": 0.753447, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029246, "annualized_volatility": 0.163599, "from_high_reference": -0.00089, "from_low_reference": 0.193473 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.132, "fair_value_reference": 91.331334, "structural_low": 94.07, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of 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"fair_value": 90.58532, "relative_strength": -5.245038, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.850358, "energy": 44.368625, "activity_lines": [ 104.862667, 103.786364, 102.200286, 102.254407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 106.26, "volume": 3060823, "typical_volume": 4933393.45, "trend": 102.814667, "fair_value": 90.756071, "relative_strength": -3.636221, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.921452, "energy": 56.78936, "activity_lines": [ 105.571333, 104.388182, 102.669429, 102.482409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 104.63, "volume": 3167035, "typical_volume": 4684580.6, "trend": 102.812667, "fair_value": 90.912971, "relative_strength": -4.383996, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.793506, "energy": 52.959297, "activity_lines": [ 105.511333, 104.607636, 102.986524, 102.599527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 108.08, "volume": 3020946, "typical_volume": 4450100.3, "trend": 102.964667, "fair_value": 91.106031, "relative_strength": -2.186205, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.313367, "energy": 56.988375, "activity_lines": [ 106.434, 105.357273, 103.623476, 102.939355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.27, "volume": 3740442, "typical_volume": 4309937.35, "trend": 103.132, "fair_value": 91.331334, "relative_strength": -1.773005, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.695071, "energy": 80.898904, "activity_lines": [ 108.422667, 106.762545, 104.613857, 103.539699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }