{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7124a51-5bb1-4020-80ba-d6eef0b1b56f", "symbol": "COSM", "name": "Cosmos Health Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.43, "architecture_energy": 35.318, "architecture_maturity": 95.959, "architecture_confidence": 82.615, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.28, "rotation_up": 25.03, "upward_expansion": 4.22, "deceleration": 55.65, "rotation_down": 43.46, "downward_expansion": 75.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.22596, 0.226422, 0.248404, 0.276014 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.233, "trend_reference": 0.322113, "distance_from_trend": -0.276652, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.723388, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.677904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -61.161021, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.481646, "excess_performance": -0.6691, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.276652, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262617, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.677904, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037052, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.61161, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.481646, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.282055, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18562493, "relative_activity": 0.57984, "balance": 3.282055, "dry_up": 0.79846, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.277418, "annualized_volatility": 0.991211, "from_high_reference": -0.823485, "from_low_reference": 0.441832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.322113, "fair_value_reference": 0.723388, "structural_low": 0.1616, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.087302, "positive_rate": 0.326531, "directional_follow_through": 0.673469, "median_excess_return": -0.095555, "regime_survival": 0.897959, "best_return": 5.346382, "worst_return": -0.659065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.225357, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": -0.271069, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.779279, "worst_return": -0.730093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.49162, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.61211, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.737757, "worst_return": -0.900728, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.134884, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.38206, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06108, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.435544, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019921, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": 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"close": 0.1999, "volume": 23523661, "typical_volume": 30380592.45, "trend": 0.342657, "fair_value": 0.736474, "relative_strength": -66.587369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.193621, "energy": 32.896866, "activity_lines": [ 0.23088, 0.228184, 0.259698, 0.290642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2156, "volume": 18823175, "typical_volume": 31246369.5, "trend": 0.332677, "fair_value": 0.730356, "relative_strength": -63.145806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.43708, "energy": 30.522026, "activity_lines": [ 0.226967, 0.225385, 0.252888, 0.282445 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.233, "volume": 18562493, "typical_volume": 32013122.05, "trend": 0.322113, "fair_value": 0.723388, "relative_strength": -61.161021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.430289, "energy": 35.317797, "activity_lines": [ 0.22596, 0.226422, 0.248404, 0.276014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }