{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f714739f-096d-4119-b77a-2ceb6bf0bef9", "symbol": "NMIH", "name": "NMI Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.533, "architecture_energy": 86.77, "architecture_maturity": 15.117, "architecture_confidence": 72.146, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.64, "rotation_up": 84.42, "upward_expansion": 98.08, "deceleration": 39.04, "rotation_down": 8.45, "downward_expansion": 20.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.718667, 42.287273, 40.459095, 39.794043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 44.63, "trend_reference": 39.184667, "distance_from_trend": 0.138966, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.902083, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243103, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.102109, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.087211, "excess_performance": -0.100243, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.138966, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015436, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.243103, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125321, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001021, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170876, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087211, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.853235, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2634606, "relative_activity": 1.03119, "balance": 2.853235, "dry_up": 0.968199, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046955, "annualized_volatility": 0.24958, "from_high_reference": -0.045143, "from_low_reference": 0.280999 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.184667, "fair_value_reference": 35.902083, "structural_low": 35.12, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.020609, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": 0.00493, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.103594, "worst_return": -0.108553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.027196, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020918, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.256237, "worst_return": -0.244243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024759, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065659, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232135, "worst_return": -0.221217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.29299, "energy": 37.74632, "activity_lines": [ 40.255333, 38.965818, 38.553238, 38.566452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.01, "volume": 2835295, "typical_volume": 2581452.55, "trend": 38.878667, "fair_value": 35.608878, "relative_strength": -0.135511, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.106622, "energy": 65.507197, "activity_lines": [ 41.435333, 39.810727, 38.998762, 38.837161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.75, "volume": 1905248, "typical_volume": 2561420.7, "trend": 38.923333, "fair_value": 35.710288, "relative_strength": 1.02747, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.545448, "energy": 76.674586, "activity_lines": [ 42.131333, 40.533091, 39.401905, 39.086925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.3, "volume": 2519523, "typical_volume": 2575841.1, "trend": 39.046333, "fair_value": 35.803814, "relative_strength": 4.21557, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.956472, "energy": 84.534564, "activity_lines": [ 42.992667, 41.442909, 39.931429, 39.433806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.63, "volume": 2634606, "typical_volume": 2554917.0, "trend": 39.184667, "fair_value": 35.902083, "relative_strength": 0.102109, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.532819, "energy": 86.769554, "activity_lines": [ 43.718667, 42.287273, 40.459095, 39.794043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }