{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f715f74c-b258-4cc2-9c0f-00617f889540", "symbol": "BIIB", "name": "Biogen Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.477, "architecture_energy": 25.085, "architecture_maturity": 33.444, "architecture_confidence": 62.506, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.25, "rotation_up": 36.27, "upward_expansion": 61.35, "deceleration": 66.71, "rotation_down": 23.15, "downward_expansion": 13.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 204.613333, 205.276364, 200.601333, 196.554194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 207.94, "trend_reference": 191.559, "distance_from_trend": 0.085514, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 187.427436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109443, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.935661, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.033602, "excess_performance": -0.153852, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085514, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052985, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109443, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11462, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029357, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015392, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033602, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.747159, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4753816, "relative_activity": 0.798161, "balance": 1.747159, "dry_up": 1.135132, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071856, "annualized_volatility": 0.232448, "from_high_reference": -0.053614, "from_low_reference": 0.62822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 191.559, "fair_value_reference": 187.427436, "structural_low": 168.64, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.036797, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.051329, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.117867, "worst_return": -0.121584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004008, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.082999, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.084946, "worst_return": -0.186232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.03146, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.242146, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.128189, "worst_return": -0.322311, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"direction": 59.751836, "energy": 56.875818, "activity_lines": [ 206.768667, 202.954727, 195.865286, 192.633548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 205.99, "volume": 11253541, "typical_volume": 5873651.85, "trend": 189.207, "fair_value": 188.675833, "relative_strength": 7.345078, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.954548, "energy": 49.079012, "activity_lines": [ 206.903333, 204.054182, 197.283048, 193.783398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 202.19, "volume": 4085721, "typical_volume": 5859903.6, "trend": 190.044, "fair_value": 188.271731, "relative_strength": 6.610349, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.964112, "energy": 33.805717, "activity_lines": [ 205.375333, 204.234727, 198.271429, 194.621011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 202.95, "volume": 6950130, "typical_volume": 6000032.9, "trend": 190.881667, "fair_value": 187.848846, "relative_strength": 6.0152, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.358586, "energy": 21.23697, "activity_lines": [ 203.726667, 204.385455, 199.249714, 195.453656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 207.94, "volume": 4753816, "typical_volume": 5955958.6, "trend": 191.559, "fair_value": 187.427436, "relative_strength": 2.935661, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.476591, "energy": 25.085128, "activity_lines": [ 204.613333, 205.276364, 200.601333, 196.554194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }