{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f718f21f-5ccb-4682-b929-a5503e78b9bb", "symbol": "OPCH", "name": "Option Care Health Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.48, "architecture_energy": 16.614, "architecture_maturity": 82.788, "architecture_confidence": 62.037, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.07, "rotation_up": 29.49, "upward_expansion": 28.48, "deceleration": 49.5, "rotation_down": 18.82, "downward_expansion": 48.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.74, 22.269636, 22.171429, 23.700774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.79, "trend_reference": 26.425, "distance_from_trend": -0.099716, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.532628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.19445, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.55834, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.300294, "excess_performance": -0.487748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099716, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102178, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.19445, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129834, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255583, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178007, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.300294, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.281756, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14528055, "relative_activity": 1.024634, "balance": 1.281756, "dry_up": 0.957435, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068085, "annualized_volatility": 0.561835, "from_high_reference": -0.353533, "from_low_reference": 0.320933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.425, "fair_value_reference": 29.532628, "structural_low": 18.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.028273, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.1875, "median_excess_return": 0.005711, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.291371, "worst_return": -0.08359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.122556, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.128958, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.434565, "worst_return": -0.023459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.192388, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.105794, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.345253, "worst_return": -0.157158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 28.111, "fair_value": 29.890962, "relative_strength": -33.393119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.201456, "energy": 42.482449, "activity_lines": [ 21.652, 21.224727, 23.024476, 25.319935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.57, "volume": 10279682, "typical_volume": 13652668.3, "trend": 27.722, "fair_value": 29.820833, "relative_strength": -34.902582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.34827, "energy": 37.79314, "activity_lines": [ 21.71, 21.349455, 22.672857, 24.897935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.74, "volume": 10969298, "typical_volume": 13424322.65, "trend": 27.363, "fair_value": 29.748333, "relative_strength": -30.917761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.911763, "energy": 34.740581, "activity_lines": [ 21.754, 21.477091, 22.404667, 24.512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.66, "volume": 8642729, "typical_volume": 13288043.15, "trend": 26.999, "fair_value": 29.668269, "relative_strength": -29.426913, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.523877, "energy": 31.814203, "activity_lines": [ 21.706, 21.567818, 22.179905, 24.144065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.03, "volume": 20160914, "typical_volume": 13897919.95, "trend": 26.692, "fair_value": 29.601923, "relative_strength": -24.801452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.902029, "energy": 30.029987, "activity_lines": [ 22.136667, 21.868727, 22.124571, 23.888 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.79, "volume": 14528055, "typical_volume": 14178769.95, "trend": 26.425, "fair_value": 29.532628, "relative_strength": -25.55834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.47996, "energy": 16.614112, "activity_lines": [ 22.74, 22.269636, 22.171429, 23.700774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }