{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f71f020c-ded1-47d2-abcd-688959a1d119", "symbol": "EFOI", "name": "Energy Focu", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.578, "architecture_energy": 23.19, "architecture_maturity": 32.862, "architecture_confidence": 73.743, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.82, "rotation_up": 23.68, "upward_expansion": 57.27, "deceleration": 74.31, "rotation_down": 32.55, "downward_expansion": 32.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.0364, 3.0202, 3.275356, 3.148782 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.19, "trend_reference": 2.911863, "distance_from_trend": 0.095518, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.995443, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.598643, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.524483, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.65285, "excess_performance": 0.465396, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095518, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097912, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.598643, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.455628, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035245, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322297, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.65285, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.600168, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50700, "relative_activity": 0.005698, "balance": 0.600168, "dry_up": 0.006122, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147263, "annualized_volatility": 1.814084, "from_high_reference": -0.675813, "from_low_reference": 0.921687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.911863, "fair_value_reference": 1.995443, "structural_low": 1.66, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.030405, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.084914, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.152969, "worst_return": -0.19346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.173335, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.067907, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.585366, "worst_return": -0.238696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.692987, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.459851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.695122, "worst_return": 0.690852, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134228, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.213904, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08938, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.261224, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"energy": 12.072923, "activity_lines": [ 3.04, 3.298182, 3.361991, 3.095328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.98, "volume": 53233, "typical_volume": 8904161.0, "trend": 2.8111, "fair_value": 1.969182, "relative_strength": -2.549047, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.829917, "energy": 10.975512, "activity_lines": [ 2.990667, 3.203455, 3.353454, 3.107343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.903, "volume": 55796, "typical_volume": 8904906.6, "trend": 2.8302, "fair_value": 1.973817, "relative_strength": -1.047262, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.486971, "energy": 18.199849, "activity_lines": [ 2.955667, 3.111273, 3.331869, 3.113272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.87, "volume": 52080, "typical_volume": 8902043.3, "trend": 2.850867, "fair_value": 1.97961, "relative_strength": -0.742959, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.929059, "energy": 29.946834, "activity_lines": [ 2.917467, 3.031764, 3.30165, 3.11584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.05, "volume": 59344, "typical_volume": 8900184.1, "trend": 2.878533, "fair_value": 1.987366, "relative_strength": 4.529531, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.571327, "energy": 27.45302, "activity_lines": [ 2.9566, 3.005891, 3.284265, 3.128688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.19, "volume": 50700, "typical_volume": 8898518.55, "trend": 2.911863, "fair_value": 1.995443, "relative_strength": 3.524483, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.577506, "energy": 23.190102, "activity_lines": [ 3.0364, 3.0202, 3.275356, 3.148782 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }