{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7207ad0-c763-4cde-a8f8-061fd4da5cd9", "symbol": "AOF", "name": "Amplefield Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.662, "architecture_energy": 59.306, "architecture_maturity": 30.435, "architecture_confidence": 88.172, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 18.39, "upward_expansion": 10.91, "deceleration": 44.48, "rotation_down": 61.87, "downward_expansion": 84.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0216, 0.021945, 0.023276, 0.02417 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.022, "trend_reference": 0.0253, "distance_from_trend": -0.130435, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.021891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004978, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.334471, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.214286, "excess_performance": -0.369121, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130435, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060644, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004978, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272215, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329298, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.214286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.567166, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3600, "relative_activity": 0.022477, "balance": 1.567166, "dry_up": 2.709862, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08042, "annualized_volatility": 0.444336, "from_high_reference": -0.290323, "from_low_reference": 0.294118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0253, "fair_value_reference": 0.021891, "structural_low": 0.017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.304348, "median_excess_return": 0.00729, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.136364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.041651, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.571429, "worst_return": -0.103448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009398, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047575, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.611111, "worst_return": -0.173913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021739, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.154217, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.052632, "worst_return": -0.178571, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.217391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.021, "volume": 67600, "typical_volume": 934510.0, "trend": 0.024367, "fair_value": 0.027269, "relative_strength": -14.138788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.625606, "energy": 47.034637, "activity_lines": 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.221711, "energy": 65.056817, "activity_lines": [ 0.023733, 0.024964, 0.025595, 0.026118 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.023, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 317305.0, "trend": 0.026567, "fair_value": 0.021955, "relative_strength": -17.973381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.001444, "energy": 65.128206, "activity_lines": [ 0.0234, 0.024436, 0.02529, 0.02588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.023, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 289470.0, "trend": 0.026467, "fair_value": 0.021955, "relative_strength": -18.766842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.048863, "energy": 66.815424, "activity_lines": [ 0.0232, 0.024, 0.02501, 0.025649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.022, "volume": 325300, "typical_volume": 292300.0, "trend": 0.026267, "fair_value": 0.021942, "relative_strength": -25.328886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.614522, "energy": 73.803178, "activity_lines": [ 0.022733, 0.023473, 0.024657, 0.025361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.02, "volume": 466700, "typical_volume": 200290.0, "trend": 0.026, "fair_value": 0.021923, "relative_strength": -32.335476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.476365, "energy": 87.617717, "activity_lines": [ 0.021733, 0.022673, 0.024143, 0.024957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.02, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 154905.0, "trend": 0.0257, "fair_value": 0.021891, "relative_strength": -33.023288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.385431, "energy": 92.729553, "activity_lines": [ 0.021, 0.022018, 0.023667, 0.02457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.023, "volume": 1265800, "typical_volume": 185655.0, "trend": 0.0255, "fair_value": 0.021897, "relative_strength": -23.325329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.767382, "energy": 77.234039, "activity_lines": [ 0.021467, 0.022055, 0.02351, 0.024396 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.022, "volume": 3600, "typical_volume": 160165.0, "trend": 0.0253, "fair_value": 0.021891, "relative_strength": -27.334471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.661989, "energy": 59.305894, "activity_lines": [ 0.0216, 0.021945, 0.023276, 0.02417 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }