{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f72398eb-8ec6-4014-aa2b-facff8a8ee1e", "symbol": "RSG", "name": "Republic Services Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 76.288, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 8.402, "architecture_energy": 8.889, "architecture_maturity": 7.779, "architecture_confidence": 62.498, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.39, "rotation_up": 39.6, "upward_expansion": 33.94, "deceleration": 37.76, "rotation_down": 25.92, "downward_expansion": 20.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 215.303333, 215.237982, 212.323745, 213.197184 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 214.56, "trend_reference": 214.510895, "distance_from_trend": 0.000229, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 202.38979, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060133, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.852461, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.021729, "excess_performance": -0.147354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000229, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003145, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060133, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045888, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118525, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094517, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021729, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.642798, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7655084, "relative_activity": 0.969605, "balance": 1.642798, "dry_up": 0.901509, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05265, "annualized_volatility": 0.203335, "from_high_reference": -0.093091, "from_low_reference": 0.09555 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 214.510895, "fair_value_reference": 202.38979, "structural_low": 195.846808, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.029628, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.010402, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.121783, "worst_return": -0.077164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.008738, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.024594, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.12333, "worst_return": -0.090639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.063077, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.039359, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.075995, "worst_return": 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212.359452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 219.2, "volume": 6278752, "typical_volume": 7689197.85, "trend": 213.876511, "fair_value": 200.591086, "relative_strength": -9.751132, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.602171, "energy": 20.647979, "activity_lines": [ 215.378756, 211.764823, 211.031619, 212.71748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 222.31, "volume": 6987159, "typical_volume": 7703850.6, "trend": 214.223021, "fair_value": 201.053901, "relative_strength": -6.559782, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.64038, "energy": 32.539332, "activity_lines": [ 218.417425, 214.170769, 211.878407, 213.261576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 216.91, "volume": 6006032, "typical_volume": 7734682.9, "trend": 214.381908, "fair_value": 201.503525, "relative_strength": -7.780737, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.366507, "energy": 34.535597, "activity_lines": [ 218.789301, 215.179196, 212.239721, 213.434929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 210.55, "volume": 7821599, "typical_volume": 7832900.4, "trend": 214.413141, "fair_value": 201.930824, "relative_strength": -10.966135, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.012498, "energy": 17.843605, "activity_lines": [ 216.204, 214.864218, 212.059581, 213.18771 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 214.56, "volume": 7655084, "typical_volume": 7895057.45, "trend": 214.510895, "fair_value": 202.38979, "relative_strength": -11.852461, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.401732, "energy": 8.889374, "activity_lines": [ 215.303333, 215.237982, 212.323745, 213.197184 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }