{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7242c6f-2a56-477b-85a7-c8d32b0396ac", "symbol": "HJAP", "name": "HSBC MSCI Japan Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.09, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.183, "architecture_energy": 24.709, "architecture_maturity": 62.25, "architecture_confidence": 78.86, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.33, "rotation_up": 26.32, "upward_expansion": 56.61, "deceleration": 88.24, "rotation_down": 38.78, "downward_expansion": 22.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.340934, 16.4788, 16.385476, 16.186043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 16.648001, "trend_reference": 15.966467, "distance_from_trend": 0.042685, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.108295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.521903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.072819, "excess_performance": 0.008179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042685, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030316, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012984, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005219, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110869, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072819, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.401888, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1761, "relative_activity": 0.270337, "balance": 0.401888, "dry_up": 1.291775, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032566, "annualized_volatility": 0.199053, "from_high_reference": -0.027911, "from_low_reference": 0.204631 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.966467, "fair_value_reference": 14.108295, "structural_low": 14.422, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013692, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.004974, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.049046, "worst_return": -0.019389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.001155, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.027912, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125265, "worst_return": -0.017239, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.09157, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.054347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144327, "worst_return": 0.049257, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010592, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043621, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008491, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.075301, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052252, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069595, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049046, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021117, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032498, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.232, "volume": 1650, "typical_volume": 1401.2, "trend": 12.571, "fair_value": 12.660378, "relative_strength": -6.583433, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.50993, 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"up", "direction": 72.962502, "energy": 76.768983, "activity_lines": [ 16.808, 16.594691, 16.213229, 16.022237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.85, "volume": 2419, "typical_volume": 8201.7, "trend": 15.823333, "fair_value": 14.017923, "relative_strength": 6.660929, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.652844, "energy": 73.813347, "activity_lines": [ 16.8656, 16.670909, 16.298191, 16.092465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.066, "volume": 7758, "typical_volume": 8369.8, "trend": 15.86, "fair_value": 14.039705, "relative_strength": 2.332793, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.898256, "energy": 38.552217, "activity_lines": [ 16.6212, 16.586, 16.304629, 16.10812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.132, "volume": 4111, "typical_volume": 7402.85, "trend": 15.899733, "fair_value": 14.059308, "relative_strength": 1.399519, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.39595, "energy": 22.605548, "activity_lines": [ 16.412933, 16.520618, 16.318876, 16.125669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.124001, "volume": 20029, "typical_volume": 7280.55, "trend": 15.936467, "fair_value": 14.082103, "relative_strength": -0.901556, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.38168, "energy": 20.674629, "activity_lines": [ 16.268267, 16.451346, 16.329314, 16.140138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.648001, "volume": 1761, "typical_volume": 6514.1, "trend": 15.966467, "fair_value": 14.108295, "relative_strength": -0.521903, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.182877, "energy": 24.708934, "activity_lines": [ 16.340934, 16.4788, 16.385476, 16.186043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }