{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7312c5e-9c92-46e9-922a-82d496532154", "symbol": "XKMS", "name": "Reksa Dana Indeks Kisi MSCI Indonesia ETF", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.432, "architecture_energy": 28.509, "architecture_maturity": 66.994, "architecture_confidence": 72.777, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.75, "rotation_up": 32.26, "upward_expansion": 21.44, "deceleration": 46.35, "rotation_down": 25.87, "downward_expansion": 60.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 872.933333, 857.527273, 867.519048, 900.122581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 886.0, "trend_reference": 958.7, "distance_from_trend": -0.075832, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1079.686047, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.179391, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.168312, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.203953, "excess_performance": -0.011697, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075832, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104716, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.179391, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027543, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001683, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051061, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203953, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.013303, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 900, "relative_activity": 0.01128, "balance": 0.013303, "dry_up": 0.025694, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040719, "annualized_volatility": 0.330034, "from_high_reference": -0.265949, "from_low_reference": 0.149157 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 958.7, "fair_value_reference": 1079.686047, "structural_low": 771.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.047503, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.003428, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.047503, "worst_return": 0.047503, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079172, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 1217.0, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 1162.0, "volume": 33400, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.592481, "energy": 58.578196, "activity_lines": [ 828.0, 842.254545, 889.3, 939.866667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 828.0, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 89920.0, "trend": 998.933333, "fair_value": 1089.646341, "relative_strength": 0.216716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.353929, "energy": 55.488107, "activity_lines": [ 829.666667, 836.018182, 879.119048, 928.088172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 884.0, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 79485.0, "trend": 989.066667, "fair_value": 1087.168675, "relative_strength": 2.833602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.016571, "energy": 42.402398, "activity_lines": [ 846.2, 841.563636, 875.666667, 920.673118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 860.0, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 79525.0, "trend": 978.833333, "fair_value": 1084.464286, "relative_strength": -0.110773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.713734, "energy": 43.298383, "activity_lines": [ 852.066667, 843.945455, 871.033333, 912.346237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 872.0, "volume": 5400, "typical_volume": 79750.0, "trend": 968.633333, "fair_value": 1081.964706, "relative_strength": 0.810449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.40114, "energy": 31.070225, "activity_lines": [ 861.866667, 849.581818, 868.357143, 905.453763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 886.0, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 79785.0, "trend": 958.7, "fair_value": 1079.686047, "relative_strength": -0.168312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.432425, "energy": 28.508942, "activity_lines": [ 872.933333, 857.527273, 867.519048, 900.122581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }