{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f73b7762-4b47-46ba-81ea-b5b06d56022e", "symbol": "AAVAS", "name": "Aavas Financiers Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.103, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.477, "architecture_energy": 22.643, "architecture_maturity": 57.888, "architecture_confidence": 77.946, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.48, "rotation_up": 23.85, "upward_expansion": 56.95, "deceleration": 88.15, "rotation_down": 39.54, "downward_expansion": 22.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 1395.146671, 1427.930915, 1411.787622, 1375.948606 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1371.5, "trend_reference": 1350.566671, "distance_from_trend": 0.0155, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1606.209297, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146126, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.623761, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.053865, "excess_performance": 0.097574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0155, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025785, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146126, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041835, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005104, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053865, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.988947, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 342458, "relative_activity": 0.750062, "balance": 0.988947, "dry_up": 0.821677, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062985, "annualized_volatility": 0.309296, "from_high_reference": -0.225972, "from_low_reference": 0.29338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1350.566671, "fair_value_reference": 1606.209297, "structural_low": 1060.400024, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028296, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.007331, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.085761, "worst_return": -0.148069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005617, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.058008, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.017902, "worst_return": -0.073536, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.023545, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.078832, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.087863, "worst_return": -0.04325, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163004, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030174, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019354, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004825, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.050388, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030043, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.14802, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013147, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081274, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1569.449951, "volume": 600383, "typical_volume": 1596409.75, "trend": 1613.663334, "fair_value": 2102.57371, "relative_strength": -17.602403, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", 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"relative_strength": -1.732561, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.347781, "energy": 44.802404, "activity_lines": [ 1460.026676, 1450.376371, 1409.856194, 1374.437209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1361.0, "volume": 133264, "typical_volume": 521254.3, "trend": 1353.163338, "fair_value": 1607.758977, "relative_strength": -5.078252, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.756074, "energy": 20.138374, "activity_lines": [ 1421.540006, 1437.872734, 1410.777146, 1374.765595 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1371.5, "volume": 342458, "typical_volume": 456572.9, "trend": 1350.566671, "fair_value": 1606.209297, "relative_strength": -4.623761, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.477355, "energy": 22.642702, "activity_lines": [ 1395.146671, 1427.930915, 1411.787622, 1375.948606 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }