{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f73ccf85-6dfb-43ff-a3ea-343729be4a6b", "symbol": "GPX", "name": "Gasporox AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.519, "architecture_energy": 58.921, "architecture_maturity": 20.309, "architecture_confidence": 71.738, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.66, "rotation_up": 18.42, "upward_expansion": 20.67, "deceleration": 44.33, "rotation_down": 68.77, "downward_expansion": 62.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.436667, 6.673636, 7.225381, 7.300409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.35, "trend_reference": 7.289333, "distance_from_trend": -0.128864, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.365705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.321994, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.687528, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023077, "excess_performance": -0.084571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128864, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0146, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.321994, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232094, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226875, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.338226, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023077, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.087414, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14574, "relative_activity": 0.914238, "balance": 0.087414, "dry_up": 0.663613, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111448, "annualized_volatility": 0.410856, "from_high_reference": -0.324468, "from_low_reference": 0.047855 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.289333, "fair_value_reference": 9.365705, "structural_low": 6.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.039124, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.057548, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.012072, "worst_return": -0.066176, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.193159, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.078762, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.193159, "worst_return": -0.193159, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.265594, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.128609, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.265594, "worst_return": -0.265594, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.463783, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.472665, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.463783, "worst_return": 0.463783, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.105442, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071713, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.210884, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.080851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.173913, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.149206, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16317, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100279, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18136, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104167, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191257, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041379, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066176, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.85, "volume": 16589, "typical_volume": 24834.5, "trend": 14.988333, "fair_value": 12.135962, "relative_strength": 28.971015, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", 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7.628645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 6.95, "volume": 402, "typical_volume": 19137.3, "trend": 7.454333, "fair_value": 9.629808, "relative_strength": -17.48919, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.413775, "energy": 29.103371, "activity_lines": [ 7.216667, 7.67, 7.739524, 7.595613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.8, "volume": 9549, "typical_volume": 18744.1, "trend": 7.444333, "fair_value": 9.578205, "relative_strength": -17.004522, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.311, "energy": 42.47849, "activity_lines": [ 7.02, 7.447273, 7.66319, 7.553398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.5, "volume": 7737, "typical_volume": 18286.0, "trend": 7.428333, "fair_value": 9.528205, "relative_strength": -19.231037, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.014717, "energy": 49.770473, "activity_lines": [ 6.813333, 7.199091, 7.558762, 7.492473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.2, "volume": 12524, "typical_volume": 18409.55, "trend": 7.371667, "fair_value": 9.478846, "relative_strength": -23.447667, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.924127, "energy": 55.096722, "activity_lines": [ 6.566667, 6.944545, 7.427667, 7.413226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.6, "volume": 7480, "typical_volume": 17963.55, "trend": 7.327, "fair_value": 9.427244, "relative_strength": -18.580179, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.167061, "energy": 54.000007, "activity_lines": [ 6.523333, 6.812727, 7.338476, 7.363441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.35, "volume": 14574, "typical_volume": 15941.15, "trend": 7.289333, "fair_value": 9.365705, "relative_strength": -22.687528, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.519172, "energy": 58.921117, "activity_lines": [ 6.436667, 6.673636, 7.225381, 7.300409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }