{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f740a9c9-2b9d-479c-90b2-b14a66196d44", "symbol": "ESDD", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD C/D", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.351, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.826, "architecture_energy": 65.182, "architecture_maturity": 73.215, "architecture_confidence": 61.859, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.7, "rotation_up": 53.58, "upward_expansion": 81.83, "deceleration": 70.3, "rotation_down": 28.66, "downward_expansion": 10.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.326, 27.198091, 26.957284, 26.438196 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.014999, "trend_reference": 25.841755, "distance_from_trend": 0.084098, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.206399, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321063, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.640078, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.13363, "excess_performance": 0.050747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084098, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03414, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321063, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001583, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006401, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074559, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13363, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.229536, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37326, "relative_activity": 1.292756, "balance": 0.229536, "dry_up": 4.449966, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015967, "annualized_volatility": 0.133355, "from_high_reference": -0.005502, "from_low_reference": 0.224301 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.841755, "fair_value_reference": 21.206399, "structural_low": 23.114922, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.015682, "positive_rate": 0.756098, "directional_follow_through": 0.756098, "median_excess_return": 0.007636, "regime_survival": 0.780488, "best_return": 0.062998, "worst_return": -0.08968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.045527, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.028041, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.103715, "worst_return": -0.046748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.087181, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.008808, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.213932, "worst_return": -0.159479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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20.769844, "relative_strength": -1.830078, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.621974, "energy": 60.540582, "activity_lines": [ 26.960334, 26.94084, 26.19986, 25.79048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.184999, "volume": 23, "typical_volume": 3320.8, "trend": 25.436521, "fair_value": 20.844309, "relative_strength": -1.614813, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.17473, "energy": 57.929249, "activity_lines": [ 27.000333, 27.016454, 26.35035, 25.908517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.370001, "volume": 27033, "typical_volume": 3201.8, "trend": 25.528563, "fair_value": 20.9179, "relative_strength": 0.33457, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.815352, "energy": 64.609121, "activity_lines": [ 27.118333, 27.100448, 26.507016, 26.033257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.98, "volume": 408525, "typical_volume": 23626.55, "trend": 25.607109, "fair_value": 20.98793, "relative_strength": -1.83616, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.7949, "energy": 58.606252, "activity_lines": [ 27.090667, 27.086532, 26.614097, 26.126899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.855, "volume": 42117, "typical_volume": 25724.9, "trend": 25.674564, "fair_value": 21.056958, "relative_strength": -2.136362, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.266923, "energy": 53.840886, "activity_lines": [ 27.021667, 27.044818, 26.699183, 26.207408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.98, "volume": 25971, "typical_volume": 27022.45, "trend": 25.743218, "fair_value": 21.1277, "relative_strength": -1.73891, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.089748, "energy": 47.044237, "activity_lines": [ 27.012333, 27.026182, 26.786066, 26.291629 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.014999, "volume": 37326, "typical_volume": 28873.2, "trend": 25.841755, "fair_value": 21.206399, "relative_strength": 0.640078, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.826482, "energy": 65.181755, "activity_lines": [ 27.326, 27.198091, 26.957284, 26.438196 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }