{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f741ab2c-78ca-4c9a-a985-ad60ef8774be", "symbol": "BITQ", "name": "BITWISE CRYPTO INDUSTRY INNOVATORS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.555, "architecture_energy": 23.808, "architecture_maturity": 31.038, "architecture_confidence": 63.333, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.91, "rotation_up": 15.34, "upward_expansion": 15.32, "deceleration": 60.78, "rotation_down": 64.47, "downward_expansion": 47.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.906667, 23.644, 24.543286, 23.887591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 22.88, "trend_reference": 23.037667, "distance_from_trend": -0.006844, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.633782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.375514, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.774615, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.192288, "excess_performance": 0.066663, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006844, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032369, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.375514, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.424322, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247155, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.192288, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.898781, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 390305, "relative_activity": 0.608689, "balance": 0.898781, "dry_up": 0.671929, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123057, "annualized_volatility": 0.474917, "from_high_reference": -0.272501, "from_low_reference": 0.374174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.037667, "fair_value_reference": 16.633782, "structural_low": 17.57, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.036419, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.02877, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.338983, "worst_return": -0.211565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.025361, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.049439, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.239548, "worst_return": -0.321188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.158632, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.07791, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.520695, "worst_return": -0.055694, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -6.006713, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.50651, "energy": 18.510524, "activity_lines": [ 24.852, 25.649091, 24.979381, 23.931161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.12, "volume": 319178, "typical_volume": 675556.75, "trend": 22.889, "fair_value": 16.364005, "relative_strength": -11.467051, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.778452, "energy": 17.885385, "activity_lines": [ 23.724, 24.911273, 24.829381, 23.883075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.29, "volume": 645472, "typical_volume": 672214.4, "trend": 22.974667, "fair_value": 16.451407, "relative_strength": -6.112423, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.228607, "energy": 18.657202, "activity_lines": [ 23.296667, 24.482, 24.779095, 23.908946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.79, "volume": 368467, "typical_volume": 652747.2, "trend": 23.026333, "fair_value": 16.541554, "relative_strength": -9.112331, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.522019, "energy": 22.859237, "activity_lines": [ 23.008, 24.018182, 24.662476, 23.897032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.88, "volume": 390305, "typical_volume": 641221.95, "trend": 23.037667, "fair_value": 16.633782, "relative_strength": -11.774615, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.55478, "energy": 23.808032, "activity_lines": [ 22.906667, 23.644, 24.543286, 23.887591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }