{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f74437c6-64f7-4bb9-bb55-fba07e985631", "symbol": "ENI", "name": "Eni S.p.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.471, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.53, "architecture_energy": 40.602, "architecture_maturity": 38.437, "architecture_confidence": 57.695, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.62, "rotation_up": 67.37, "upward_expansion": 68.58, "deceleration": 64.2, "rotation_down": 11.81, "downward_expansion": 14.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.934667, 22.242182, 22.392862, 22.18685 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.15, "trend_reference": 21.311046, "distance_from_trend": 0.086291, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.616658, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.583809, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.699214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.340525, "excess_performance": 0.166279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086291, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113125, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.583809, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026992, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158731, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.340525, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 73.375, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20, "relative_activity": 0.131363, "balance": 73.375, "dry_up": 2.449918, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049207, "annualized_volatility": 0.313742, "from_high_reference": -0.062464, "from_low_reference": 0.667872 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.311046, "fair_value_reference": 14.616658, "structural_low": 17.253705, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.049102, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.031029, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.12787, "worst_return": -0.021682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.020242, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.016826, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090701, "worst_return": -0.101194, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.008428, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01755, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121251, "worst_return": -0.02087, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046115, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.023312, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035955, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01963, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169421, "active": false }, { "regime": 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20.842334, 21.651296, 22.225879, 21.62071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.59, "volume": 976, "typical_volume": 307.6, "trend": 20.555868, "fair_value": 14.388201, "relative_strength": 1.082892, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.863506, "energy": 32.942647, "activity_lines": [ 20.955, 21.546, 22.161744, 21.700534 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.844999, "volume": 208, "typical_volume": 147.3, "trend": 20.794849, "fair_value": 14.461468, "relative_strength": 5.076516, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.688755, "energy": 17.928704, "activity_lines": [ 21.595, 21.687364, 22.206447, 21.84822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.955, "volume": 288, "typical_volume": 161.7, "trend": 21.061378, "fair_value": 14.542559, "relative_strength": 9.789953, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.272503, "energy": 34.284496, "activity_lines": [ 22.522333, 22.044091, 22.343155, 22.0521 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.15, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 152.25, "trend": 21.311046, "fair_value": 14.616658, "relative_strength": 2.699214, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.530339, "energy": 40.602033, "activity_lines": [ 22.934667, 22.242182, 22.392862, 22.18685 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }