{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f744da1b-6425-4b5b-9584-3d71a0f91108", "symbol": "7818", "name": "TRANSACTION CO.,Ltd.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.097, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.273, "architecture_energy": 27.251, "architecture_maturity": 41.809, "architecture_confidence": 66.88, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.23, "rotation_up": 14.39, "upward_expansion": 15.47, "deceleration": 67.63, "rotation_down": 60.09, "downward_expansion": 40.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 1215.8, 1245.963636, 1260.82381, 1248.354839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1259.0, "trend_reference": 1240.6, "distance_from_trend": 0.014832, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1079.193362, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.166612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.207496, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.027799, "excess_performance": -0.189533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014832, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048985, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.166612, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04517, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060142, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027799, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.232659, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1552000, "relative_activity": 2.214786, "balance": 1.232659, "dry_up": 1.814248, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05615, "annualized_volatility": 0.294294, "from_high_reference": -0.112755, "from_low_reference": 0.262788 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1240.6, "fair_value_reference": 1079.193362, "structural_low": 1074.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.05981, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.025892, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.293724, "worst_return": -0.283569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.063125, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.009506, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.224268, "worst_return": -0.141141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031749, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.073625, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.496234, "worst_return": -0.122301, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002791, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039095, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150042, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088207, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035254, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.193823, "energy": 32.961863, "activity_lines": [ 1214.333333, 1268.909091, 1261.547619, 1249.470968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 1200.0, "volume": 1384300, "typical_volume": 660845.0, "trend": 1238.766667, "fair_value": 1076.775944, "relative_strength": -19.320819, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.69518, "energy": 33.450487, "activity_lines": [ 1199.6, 1251.054545, 1258.42381, 1247.049462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 1259.0, "volume": 1552000, "typical_volume": 700745.0, "trend": 1240.6, "fair_value": 1079.193362, "relative_strength": -11.207496, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.273163, "energy": 27.251058, "activity_lines": [ 1215.8, 1245.963636, 1260.82381, 1248.354839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }