{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f744ddc3-4751-4219-b165-29475ad06016", "symbol": "6109", "name": "Atech OEM Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.948, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.335, "architecture_energy": 35.056, "architecture_maturity": 14.142, "architecture_confidence": 72.486, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.14, "rotation_up": 12.46, "upward_expansion": 4.69, "deceleration": 47.25, "rotation_down": 66.27, "downward_expansion": 78.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.356667, 11.825455, 11.829762, 11.879247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.2, "trend_reference": 11.951667, "distance_from_trend": -0.062892, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.62945, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.113184, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.033269, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.089431, "excess_performance": -0.530803, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062892, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002781, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.113184, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033693, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.320333, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020761, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089431, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.755745, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 767402, "relative_activity": 0.320983, "balance": 1.755745, "dry_up": 0.415383, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10783, "annualized_volatility": 0.392447, "from_high_reference": -0.272727, "from_low_reference": 0.15345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.951667, "fair_value_reference": 12.62945, "structural_low": 10.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.003195, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.023582, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.151755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.006301, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.10793, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.465321, "worst_return": -0.236154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.093023, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.18993, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.377078, "worst_return": -0.247232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.088561, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.29473, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038462, "worst_return": -0.109424, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057432, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017921, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010309, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.077417, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081181, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.1417, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.079832, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039823, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050847, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 14.980878, "volume": 1360000, "typical_volume": 3256100.0, "trend": 16.13154, "fair_value": 13.030904, "relative_strength": -9.050832, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"relative_strength": -26.231378, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.910574, "energy": 34.125887, "activity_lines": [ 12.636667, 12.225455, 12.038333, 12.032903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.8, "volume": 497007, "typical_volume": 2372171.7, "trend": 12.023333, "fair_value": 12.71311, "relative_strength": -26.929831, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.727714, "energy": 20.68926, "activity_lines": [ 12.38, 12.210909, 12.018571, 12.018065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.6, "volume": 722207, "typical_volume": 2348003.15, "trend": 12.003333, "fair_value": 12.688613, "relative_strength": -26.613233, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.77779, "energy": 8.872599, "activity_lines": [ 12.043333, 12.146364, 11.981905, 11.990753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.05, "volume": 1985755, "typical_volume": 2399587.1, "trend": 11.975, "fair_value": 12.656197, "relative_strength": -31.195148, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.773921, "energy": 29.925549, "activity_lines": [ 11.576667, 11.97, 11.895952, 11.929247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.2, "volume": 767402, "typical_volume": 2390785.85, "trend": 11.951667, "fair_value": 12.62945, "relative_strength": -32.033269, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.334987, "energy": 35.055716, "activity_lines": [ 11.356667, 11.825455, 11.829762, 11.879247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }