{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f74a033d-fbc4-4a29-8881-06c347b6c931", "symbol": "SKA", "name": "Shuka Minerals Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.276, "architecture_energy": 19.201, "architecture_maturity": 27.796, "architecture_confidence": 79.542, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.6, "rotation_up": 24.43, "upward_expansion": 7.86, "deceleration": 54.1, "rotation_down": 41.13, "downward_expansion": 69.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.028133, 0.028236, 0.028788, 0.029133 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.028, "trend_reference": 0.030517, "distance_from_trend": -0.082469, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.062852, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.554508, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.439672, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.232877, "excess_performance": -0.284112, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082469, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16697, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.554508, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02009, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.294397, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016837, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.232877, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.298349, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6971708, "relative_activity": 2.549077, "balance": 1.298349, "dry_up": 2.313834, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189753, "annualized_volatility": 0.548062, "from_high_reference": -0.6, "from_low_reference": 0.217391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.030517, "fair_value_reference": 0.062852, "structural_low": 0.023, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.020833, "positive_rate": 0.414634, "directional_follow_through": 0.536585, "median_excess_return": -0.008679, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.131404, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.146006, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.421053, "worst_return": -0.432836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.245614, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.310919, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.373134, "worst_return": -0.412281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.296491, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.344896, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.013605, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.209302, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.27551, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141176, "active": false 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after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.927755, "energy": 37.921594, "activity_lines": [ 0.0276, 0.028836, 0.029017, 0.030197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.026, "volume": 7236934, "typical_volume": 1945653.9, "trend": 0.032617, "fair_value": 0.064522, "relative_strength": -33.312767, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.910192, "energy": 46.067765, "activity_lines": [ 0.026533, 0.028245, 0.028719, 0.029729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.03, "volume": 3656795, "typical_volume": 2059709.9, "trend": 0.032117, "fair_value": 0.064009, "relative_strength": -23.8293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.219104, "energy": 36.087706, "activity_lines": [ 0.027267, 0.028436, 0.028836, 0.02956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.029, "volume": 7447844, "typical_volume": 2421317.45, "trend": 0.0315, "fair_value": 0.063458, "relative_strength": -27.04257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.733868, "energy": 27.447166, "activity_lines": [ 0.027867, 0.028427, 0.028857, 0.029359 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.028, "volume": 6971708, "typical_volume": 2734993.6, "trend": 0.030517, "fair_value": 0.062852, "relative_strength": -29.439672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.27617, "energy": 19.201302, "activity_lines": [ 0.028133, 0.028236, 0.028788, 0.029133 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }