{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f74eb5de-88bd-4afc-aacf-da8b007af79f", "symbol": "MGR", "name": "Affiliated Managers Group, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.194, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.795, "architecture_energy": 16.834, "architecture_maturity": 12.592, "architecture_confidence": 74.669, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.45, "rotation_up": 38.32, "upward_expansion": 32.53, "deceleration": 40.73, "rotation_down": 17.1, "downward_expansion": 40.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.188667, 20.08659, 20.009251, 20.067587 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.09, "trend_reference": 20.256217, "distance_from_trend": -0.008206, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.113105, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.001149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.964768, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.045964, "excess_performance": -0.171589, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008206, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012002, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.001149, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01657, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129648, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012977, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045964, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.216334, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67430, "relative_activity": 0.549929, "balance": 1.216334, "dry_up": 0.899483, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020647, "annualized_volatility": 0.09443, "from_high_reference": -0.085345, "from_low_reference": 0.037829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.256217, "fair_value_reference": 20.113105, "structural_low": 19.357709, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.014053, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.002989, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.119954, "worst_return": -0.064855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.036586, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.049589, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.111605, "worst_return": -0.167718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013933, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.045069, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.033727, "worst_return": -0.140359, 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0.036007, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00216, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033951, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0051, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053707, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013926, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": 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"direction": -32.588535, "energy": 16.908054, "activity_lines": [ 19.901661, 19.833639, 19.911953, 20.086325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.56, "volume": 189724, "typical_volume": 127826.7, "trend": 20.328436, "fair_value": 20.091252, "relative_strength": -8.271498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.096553, "energy": 12.529401, "activity_lines": [ 20.143479, 19.95945, 19.965025, 20.100888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.15, "volume": 83886, "typical_volume": 126568.9, "trend": 20.309242, "fair_value": 20.098622, "relative_strength": -9.314393, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.514133, "energy": 18.906274, "activity_lines": [ 20.184183, 20.006168, 19.980064, 20.089376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.17, "volume": 100123, "typical_volume": 124028.1, "trend": 20.28848, "fair_value": 20.105586, "relative_strength": -9.882303, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.109215, "energy": 20.136414, "activity_lines": [ 20.218, 20.056217, 19.997896, 20.080392 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.09, "volume": 67430, "typical_volume": 122615.75, "trend": 20.256217, "fair_value": 20.113105, "relative_strength": -12.964768, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.794818, "energy": 16.833981, "activity_lines": [ 20.188667, 20.08659, 20.009251, 20.067587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }