{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f75568b1-2884-4df5-b8a5-ef1a5b951658", "symbol": "DCON", "name": "Dcon Products Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.64, "architecture_energy": 48.794, "architecture_maturity": 52.295, "architecture_confidence": 91.324, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 18.56, "upward_expansion": 6.76, "deceleration": 47.02, "rotation_down": 61.82, "downward_expansion": 82.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.183333, 0.185818, 0.191333, 0.197224 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.18, "trend_reference": 0.206584, "distance_from_trend": -0.128684, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.303955, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.407808, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.37412, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.207921, "excess_performance": -0.400246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128684, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063771, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.407808, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027223, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.303741, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043637, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207921, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.476165, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5488600, "relative_activity": 2.371346, "balance": 0.476165, "dry_up": 1.444806, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076923, "annualized_volatility": 0.269555, "from_high_reference": -0.392739, "from_low_reference": 0.058824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.206584, "fair_value_reference": 0.303955, "structural_low": 0.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.017264, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": -0.026266, "regime_survival": 0.885714, "best_return": 0.071428, "worst_return": -0.14, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.073668, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.077717, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.238094, "worst_return": -0.225729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.163916, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.093554, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.102189, "worst_return": -0.230768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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0.198008, 0.204476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.18, "volume": 1239600, "typical_volume": 2712370.0, "trend": 0.211305, "fair_value": 0.308504, "relative_strength": -33.340383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.910267, "energy": 59.191608, "activity_lines": [ 0.186667, 0.190182, 0.195796, 0.202354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.18, "volume": 4728300, "typical_volume": 2413440.0, "trend": 0.20973, "fair_value": 0.306886, "relative_strength": -32.860746, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.450061, "energy": 60.339343, "activity_lines": [ 0.184, 0.187818, 0.19381, 0.200335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.19, "volume": 1919800, "typical_volume": 2282695.0, "trend": 0.208488, "fair_value": 0.305392, "relative_strength": -27.667727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.156916, "energy": 44.512301, "activity_lines": [ 0.185333, 0.187636, 0.193, 0.199062 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.18, "volume": 5488600, "typical_volume": 2314550.0, "trend": 0.206584, "fair_value": 0.303955, "relative_strength": -30.37412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.640028, "energy": 48.79434, "activity_lines": [ 0.183333, 0.185818, 0.191333, 0.197224 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }