{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f755fd36-fa73-4214-a567-00ab8019ed1a", "symbol": "XZDW", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World High Dividend Yield ESG UCITS ETF 1D USD Income", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.569, "architecture_energy": 57.939, "architecture_maturity": 27.131, "architecture_confidence": 80.33, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.26, "rotation_up": 52.94, "upward_expansion": 79.33, "deceleration": 63.42, "rotation_down": 26.96, "downward_expansion": 8.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.231834, 45.005637, 44.605091, 43.838262 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 46.4725, "trend_reference": 42.918131, "distance_from_trend": 0.082817, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.260666, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31797, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.944061, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.113152, "excess_performance": 0.061917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082817, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047591, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31797, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037293, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049441, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026358, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113152, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.279229, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55, "relative_activity": 0.019605, "balance": 2.279229, "dry_up": 1.155628, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01964, "annualized_volatility": 0.127349, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.280381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.918131, "fair_value_reference": 35.260666, "structural_low": 38.649627, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.071399, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.046546, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.090105, "worst_return": 0.052694, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.141088, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.086851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.141088, "worst_return": 0.141088, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010065, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086756, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028196, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.091635, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", 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"relative_strength": 4.944061, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.569207, "energy": 57.939357, "activity_lines": [ 45.231834, 45.005637, 44.605091, 43.838262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }