{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f756d73b-788a-4d44-8dec-a092277057e8", "symbol": "INDY", "name": "ISHARES INDIA 50 ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.384, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.07, "architecture_energy": 4.676, "architecture_maturity": 16.666, "architecture_confidence": 71.417, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.73, "rotation_up": 27.81, "upward_expansion": 31.76, "deceleration": 42.55, "rotation_down": 21.77, "downward_expansion": 42.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.581593, 43.461093, 43.255852, 43.473242 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 44.28, "trend_reference": 44.200916, "distance_from_trend": 0.001789, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.463575, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046995, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.174787, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.083219, "excess_performance": -0.270673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001789, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041176, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.046995, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010529, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161748, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077403, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083219, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.461156, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 681689, "relative_activity": 1.043626, "balance": 1.461156, "dry_up": 0.857327, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025227, "annualized_volatility": 0.173068, "from_high_reference": -0.116143, "from_low_reference": 0.087243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.200916, "fair_value_reference": 46.463575, "structural_low": 40.72686, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.001946, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.000156, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.038187, "worst_return": -0.126086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.039002, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.095663, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.038762, "worst_return": -0.061443, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.051052, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.192518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0093, "worst_return": -0.111404, "sufficient": false }, { 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"gate": "down", "direction": -27.45538, "energy": 20.781366, "activity_lines": [ 43.509498, 43.11388, 43.132602, 43.779523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.37, "volume": 536835, "typical_volume": 697869.65, "trend": 44.741017, "fair_value": 46.428639, "relative_strength": -16.126038, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.560405, "energy": 15.189835, "activity_lines": [ 43.504, 43.19032, 43.137503, 43.678581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.3813, "volume": 498605, "typical_volume": 681043.15, "trend": 44.520134, "fair_value": 46.430991, "relative_strength": -16.189063, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.975398, "energy": 19.372633, "activity_lines": [ 43.117767, 43.091362, 43.06592, 43.526341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.75, "volume": 522871, "typical_volume": 656362.3, "trend": 44.332901, "fair_value": 46.444821, "relative_strength": -13.441258, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.103066, "energy": 9.632851, "activity_lines": [ 43.262347, 43.239838, 43.137288, 43.476655 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.28, "volume": 681689, "typical_volume": 653192.75, "trend": 44.200916, "fair_value": 46.463575, "relative_strength": -16.174787, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.070231, "energy": 4.675731, "activity_lines": [ 43.581593, 43.461093, 43.255852, 43.473242 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }