{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f764252b-d2f2-4298-9562-071ddf7c0667", "symbol": "NXI", "name": "Nexity SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.869, "architecture_energy": 80.055, "architecture_maturity": 29.591, "architecture_confidence": 85.762, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 9.33, "upward_expansion": 18.92, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 77.47, "downward_expansion": 94.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.105333, 7.411909, 7.774429, 7.97029 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.04, "trend_reference": 8.232833, "distance_from_trend": -0.144887, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.809936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.348747, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.970387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.218212, "excess_performance": -0.271523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144887, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047824, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.348747, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100353, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249704, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178955, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218212, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.569434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 668023, "relative_activity": 1.127039, "balance": 0.569434, "dry_up": 1.32526, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073153, "annualized_volatility": 0.448909, "from_high_reference": -0.379189, "from_low_reference": 0.074809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.232833, "fair_value_reference": 10.809936, "structural_low": 6.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.013578, "positive_rate": 0.414634, "directional_follow_through": 0.585366, "median_excess_return": -0.013068, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.183588, "worst_return": -0.158919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.043687, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.053989, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.451867, "worst_return": -0.280341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.115529, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.163279, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.2404, "worst_return": -0.309648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.22827, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.279433, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.018839, "worst_return": -0.467979, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.204061, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012039, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052731, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011927, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.215455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016734, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004005, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.033369, 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-27.994467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.964627, "energy": 76.053979, "activity_lines": [ 7.440333, 7.670455, 7.9735, 8.135032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.055, "volume": 850769, "typical_volume": 599708.45, "trend": 8.296667, "fair_value": 10.853141, "relative_strength": -23.830382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.549438, "energy": 78.257044, "activity_lines": [ 7.235, 7.532727, 7.872762, 8.051366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.04, "volume": 668023, "typical_volume": 592724.0, "trend": 8.232833, "fair_value": 10.809936, "relative_strength": -24.970387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.868743, "energy": 80.054944, "activity_lines": [ 7.105333, 7.411909, 7.774429, 7.97029 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }