{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f76a96b8-fae1-4e23-a5bf-bc0d22f21b87", "symbol": "AELIS", "name": "Aelis Farma SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.639, "architecture_energy": 35.635, "architecture_maturity": 55.638, "architecture_confidence": 60.162, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.76, "rotation_up": 24.88, "upward_expansion": 16.8, "deceleration": 66.12, "rotation_down": 38.74, "downward_expansion": 64.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.044, 1.041891, 1.103067, 1.153385 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.042, "trend_reference": 1.2159, "distance_from_trend": -0.143022, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.685385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.816723, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.38513, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.263604, "excess_performance": -0.316916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143022, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015386, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.816723, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002942, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183851, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227393, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.263604, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.0673, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24841, "relative_activity": 0.269087, "balance": 1.0673, "dry_up": 0.71702, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092647, "annualized_volatility": 0.361274, "from_high_reference": -0.546957, "from_low_reference": 0.084287 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.2159, "fair_value_reference": 5.685385, "structural_low": 0.961, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.015856, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.043073, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.998626, "worst_return": -0.628814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.095179, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.11798, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.160338, "worst_return": -0.645312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.34645, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.355974, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.011029, "worst_return": -0.746696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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126624, "typical_volume": 110159.15, "trend": 1.225267, "fair_value": 5.931449, "relative_strength": -12.382004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.386525, "energy": 66.653031, "activity_lines": [ 1.0428, 1.071327, 1.144205, 1.189178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.048, "volume": 70189, "typical_volume": 103159.15, "trend": 1.224033, "fair_value": 5.849385, "relative_strength": -15.571323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.730254, "energy": 42.373832, "activity_lines": [ 1.050067, 1.060109, 1.130524, 1.177742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.024, "volume": 43115, "typical_volume": 94461.65, "trend": 1.2195, "fair_value": 5.767167, "relative_strength": -18.384775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.007093, "energy": 42.345436, "activity_lines": [ 1.046133, 1.047764, 1.115281, 1.164837 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.042, "volume": 24841, "typical_volume": 92315.8, "trend": 1.2159, "fair_value": 5.685385, "relative_strength": -18.38513, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.639088, "energy": 35.634685, "activity_lines": [ 1.044, 1.041891, 1.103067, 1.153385 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }