{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f76ae545-c2b2-4036-ac13-7bc8aa89750b", "symbol": "HSTE", "name": "HSBC Hang Seng Tech UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.375, "architecture_energy": 16.013, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 51.078, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.6, "rotation_up": 39.45, "upward_expansion": 26.57, "deceleration": 41.06, "rotation_down": 17.73, "downward_expansion": 49.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.797333, 5.6948, 5.718357, 5.774873 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.908, "trend_reference": 5.9305, "distance_from_trend": -0.003794, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.731106, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.136335, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.079751, "excess_performance": -0.250643, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003794, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058775, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026915, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211363, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015756, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079751, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.108954, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 268964, "relative_activity": 0.39008, "balance": 1.108954, "dry_up": 0.641992, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039334, "annualized_volatility": 0.22024, "from_high_reference": -0.263066, "from_low_reference": 0.141201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.9305, "fair_value_reference": 5.731106, "structural_low": 5.177, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.036774, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.008036, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.389176, "worst_return": -0.086957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.11239, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.067248, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.357003, "worst_return": -0.066497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.114383, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.079811, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.736643, "worst_return": -0.026154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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750412.7, "trend": 5.996167, "fair_value": 5.725349, "relative_strength": -22.515232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.826107, "energy": 26.333231, "activity_lines": [ 5.624733, 5.609709, 5.692657, 5.788092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.846, "volume": 565199, "typical_volume": 749479.75, "trend": 5.962733, "fair_value": 5.726702, "relative_strength": -20.163705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.808411, "energy": 19.001587, "activity_lines": [ 5.718933, 5.647345, 5.702071, 5.778404 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.908, "volume": 268964, "typical_volume": 689509.45, "trend": 5.9305, "fair_value": 5.731106, "relative_strength": -21.136335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.375442, "energy": 16.012776, "activity_lines": [ 5.797333, 5.6948, 5.718357, 5.774873 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }