{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f76b294c-ec3d-4927-a836-49a633c19589", "symbol": "601500", "name": "Jiangsu General Science Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.204, "architecture_energy": 26.969, "architecture_maturity": 91.881, "architecture_confidence": 81.157, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.62, "rotation_up": 27.04, "upward_expansion": 16.18, "deceleration": 46.86, "rotation_down": 28.03, "downward_expansion": 61.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.956, 3.905273, 4.035238, 4.139032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.03, "trend_reference": 4.301667, "distance_from_trend": -0.063154, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.690835, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.140878, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.227422, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.140725, "excess_performance": -0.097521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063154, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050125, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.140878, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128872, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082274, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004857, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140725, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.30699, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67259252, "relative_activity": 1.099435, "balance": 0.30699, "dry_up": 1.257467, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055736, "annualized_volatility": 0.257106, "from_high_reference": -0.226488, "from_low_reference": 0.107143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.301667, "fair_value_reference": 4.690835, "structural_low": 3.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.012418, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.01512, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.164706, "worst_return": -0.129412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005758, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034214, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.32275, "worst_return": -0.182353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.107828, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.00247, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.1875, "worst_return": -0.261037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.313739, "energy": 50.603251, "activity_lines": [ 3.833333, 3.871091, 4.059714, 4.178796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.04, "volume": 69338980, "typical_volume": 61340618.25, "trend": 4.328, "fair_value": 4.692289, "relative_strength": -5.877124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.432568, "energy": 37.75835, "activity_lines": [ 3.909333, 3.885636, 4.046905, 4.158258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.03, "volume": 67259252, "typical_volume": 61176186.05, "trend": 4.301667, "fair_value": 4.690835, "relative_strength": -8.227422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.204316, "energy": 26.968504, "activity_lines": [ 3.956, 3.905273, 4.035238, 4.139032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }