{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f770c264-8695-4e55-b2f1-0193d8e5da82", "symbol": "UE28", "name": "UBS MSCI Australia UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.614, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.043, "architecture_energy": 82.22, "architecture_maturity": 12.675, "architecture_confidence": 62.729, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.43, "rotation_up": 81.47, "upward_expansion": 92.49, "deceleration": 42.02, "rotation_down": 9.06, "downward_expansion": 16.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.924333, 23.672455, 23.447191, 23.361753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.605, "trend_reference": 23.246667, "distance_from_trend": 0.058431, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.321647, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.153992, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.92291, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080588, "excess_performance": -0.036074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058431, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016625, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.153992, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045071, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049229, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002933, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080588, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.583559, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 528, "relative_activity": 0.195209, "balance": 2.583559, "dry_up": 1.085478, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017163, "annualized_volatility": 0.141186, "from_high_reference": -0.001015, "from_low_reference": 0.123773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.246667, "fair_value_reference": 21.321647, "structural_low": 22.290001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.00375, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.011182, "regime_survival": 0.677419, "best_return": 0.040175, "worst_return": -0.047908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005742, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.033342, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0672, "worst_return": -0.095815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013834, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.049581, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.085686, "worst_return": -0.093459, 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0.007721, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000642, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044095, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010389, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002648, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031704, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": 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"energy": 30.152934, "activity_lines": [ 23.294667, 23.181546, 23.188095, 23.151828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.440001, "volume": 3472, "typical_volume": 2646.4, "trend": 23.063333, "fair_value": 21.173353, "relative_strength": -8.259624, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.736448, "energy": 46.693356, "activity_lines": [ 23.369334, 23.238455, 23.209, 23.178548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.514999, "volume": 563, "typical_volume": 2511.85, "trend": 23.1015, "fair_value": 21.209846, "relative_strength": -8.352796, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.643028, "energy": 51.752358, "activity_lines": [ 23.417333, 23.305182, 23.238595, 23.207688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.35, "volume": 1472, "typical_volume": 2268.4, "trend": 23.1245, "fair_value": 21.242128, "relative_strength": -8.56314, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.464226, "energy": 46.717844, "activity_lines": [ 23.409, 23.335091, 23.255191, 23.22372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.83, "volume": 9181, "typical_volume": 2691.0, "trend": 23.171, "fair_value": 21.279115, "relative_strength": -7.166975, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.41209, "energy": 58.569736, "activity_lines": [ 23.556667, 23.441818, 23.316881, 23.269237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.605, "volume": 528, "typical_volume": 2704.8, "trend": 23.246667, "fair_value": 21.321647, "relative_strength": -4.92291, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.042602, "energy": 82.22005, "activity_lines": [ 23.924333, 23.672455, 23.447191, 23.361753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }