{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7849ad7-56c7-48da-bd33-9167d049f18f", "symbol": "AZI", "name": "Altamin Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.21, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.183, "architecture_energy": 15.167, "architecture_maturity": 55.192, "architecture_confidence": 83.362, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.57, "rotation_up": 28.08, "upward_expansion": 16.48, "deceleration": 43.87, "rotation_down": 29.01, "downward_expansion": 64.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0234, 0.022964, 0.0238, 0.024402 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.026, "trend_reference": 0.025133, "distance_from_trend": 0.034483, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.030134, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137174, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.104166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04, "excess_performance": -0.023706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034483, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035806, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137174, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021868, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172942, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.697986, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 839732, "relative_activity": 1.68173, "balance": 0.697986, "dry_up": 0.575301, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08284, "annualized_volatility": 0.594648, "from_high_reference": -0.257143, "from_low_reference": 0.511804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.025133, "fair_value_reference": 0.030134, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.006412, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.004219, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.458341, "worst_return": -0.352735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.023196, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.00222, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.56995, "worst_return": -0.296428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.145735, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.176275, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.628096, "worst_return": -0.268281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136343, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052622, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157867, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073198, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037037, 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.464936, "energy": 70.934833, "activity_lines": [ 0.023467, 0.024582, 0.024971, 0.025338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.02, "volume": 1158411, "typical_volume": 663142.35, "trend": 0.025333, "fair_value": 0.031212, "relative_strength": -20.33385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.096701, "energy": 82.98627, "activity_lines": [ 0.022, 0.023618, 0.024433, 0.024978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.02, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 553510.9, "trend": 0.025233, "fair_value": 0.030924, "relative_strength": -20.415892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.463489, "energy": 88.629021, "activity_lines": [ 0.021, 0.022764, 0.023938, 0.024634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.023, "volume": 167065, "typical_volume": 477063.65, "trend": 0.025233, "fair_value": 0.030656, "relative_strength": -8.615902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.177732, "energy": 80.315295, "activity_lines": [ 0.021333, 0.0226, 0.023776, 0.02449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.023, "volume": 137255, "typical_volume": 482879.25, "trend": 0.025133, "fair_value": 0.030398, "relative_strength": -11.041589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.798359, "energy": 70.120482, "activity_lines": [ 0.0218, 0.022491, 0.023633, 0.024346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.026, "volume": 839732, "typical_volume": 499326.3, "trend": 0.025133, "fair_value": 0.030134, "relative_strength": -3.104166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.182561, "energy": 15.16685, "activity_lines": [ 0.0234, 0.022964, 0.0238, 0.024402 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }