{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f788d779-750c-4f2c-b37f-445ae757d893", "symbol": "300397", "name": "Xi'an Tianhe Defense Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.136, "architecture_energy": 74.756, "architecture_maturity": 17.276, "architecture_confidence": 80.64, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.65, "rotation_up": 8.18, "upward_expansion": 16.56, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 75.07, "downward_expansion": 89.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.510667, 11.684364, 12.455714, 12.681935 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.97, "trend_reference": 13.152667, "distance_from_trend": -0.165949, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.609744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.055104, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.101554, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.185598, "excess_performance": -0.192997, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165949, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032347, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.055104, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268513, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201016, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042859, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.185598, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.834383, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80511425, "relative_activity": 0.86238, "balance": 0.834383, "dry_up": 1.00355, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158685, "annualized_volatility": 0.593229, "from_high_reference": -0.368815, "from_low_reference": 0.242356 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.152667, "fair_value_reference": 11.609744, "structural_low": 8.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.02093, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": 0.023809, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.525161, "worst_return": -0.328657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.083529, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.114202, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.584516, "worst_return": -0.213013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.045936, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.062825, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.96129, "worst_return": -0.341542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 13.806, "fair_value": 11.619231, "relative_strength": -10.359967, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.190123, "energy": 33.836004, "activity_lines": [ 14.498667, 14.168909, 13.565905, 13.609763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.48, "volume": 140126856, "typical_volume": 98057967.15, "trend": 13.749, "fair_value": 11.627179, "relative_strength": -17.032734, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.756954, "energy": 14.132707, "activity_lines": [ 13.892667, 13.907636, 13.478857, 13.524215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.0, "volume": 106245118, "typical_volume": 98598167.1, "trend": 13.595333, "fair_value": 11.619615, "relative_strength": -26.280986, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.507177, "energy": 36.255286, "activity_lines": [ 12.516667, 13.199273, 13.165476, 13.282344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.87, "volume": 104980416, "typical_volume": 93730083.35, "trend": 13.45, "fair_value": 11.610769, "relative_strength": -26.847258, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.316121, "energy": 65.571756, "activity_lines": [ 11.316667, 12.537818, 12.863857, 13.042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.18, "volume": 83026739, "typical_volume": 92666390.95, "trend": 13.281, "fair_value": 11.606474, "relative_strength": -22.680777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.666083, "energy": 74.338052, "activity_lines": [ 10.629333, 11.999818, 12.615381, 12.831032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.97, "volume": 80511425, "typical_volume": 93359517.65, "trend": 13.152667, "fair_value": 11.609744, "relative_strength": -20.101554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.136227, "energy": 74.755874, "activity_lines": [ 10.510667, 11.684364, 12.455714, 12.681935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }