{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f78f50ac-4830-40be-95cd-201f19137e7c", "symbol": "NCLIND", "name": "NCL Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.109, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.322, "architecture_energy": 17.931, "architecture_maturity": 47.09, "architecture_confidence": 75.196, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.88, "rotation_up": 22.3, "upward_expansion": 53.69, "deceleration": 89.59, "rotation_down": 33.26, "downward_expansion": 19.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 182.462001, 185.003637, 182.78462, 181.077244 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 179.740005, "trend_reference": 180.928229, "distance_from_trend": -0.006567, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 203.165919, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.115304, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.544158, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.034767, "excess_performance": 0.008942, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006567, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023203, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.115304, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010114, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045442, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02545, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034767, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.554169, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 358148, "relative_activity": 1.286185, "balance": 0.554169, "dry_up": 0.740665, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050539, "annualized_volatility": 0.279933, "from_high_reference": -0.187004, "from_low_reference": 0.218576 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 180.928229, "fair_value_reference": 203.165919, "structural_low": 147.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.042416, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.030421, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.087597, "worst_return": -0.104119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.100303, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.13218, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.123371, "worst_return": -0.19193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.038926, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.055719, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.242593, "worst_return": -0.137959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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52.54339, "activity_lines": [ 189.961334, 185.278365, 180.341524, 180.796944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 186.779999, "volume": 293711, "typical_volume": 338351.6, "trend": 183.157822, "fair_value": 203.396847, "relative_strength": -0.525207, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.835374, "energy": 53.375804, "activity_lines": [ 189.456, 186.195637, 181.154239, 181.009237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 184.440002, "volume": 261384, "typical_volume": 344543.55, "trend": 182.753806, "fair_value": 203.381839, "relative_strength": -1.912938, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.923267, "energy": 33.060459, "activity_lines": [ 187.823334, 186.48691, 181.744334, 181.091958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 184.669998, "volume": 127359, "typical_volume": 326395.2, "trend": 182.407056, "fair_value": 203.385427, "relative_strength": 0.830038, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.537906, "energy": 14.845809, "activity_lines": [ 186.306666, 186.704546, 182.362667, 181.215583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 182.139999, "volume": 78084, "typical_volume": 283731.8, "trend": 181.617207, "fair_value": 203.369434, "relative_strength": -2.796497, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.554476, "energy": 9.947947, "activity_lines": [ 184.427332, 186.196909, 182.709, 181.198354 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 179.740005, "volume": 358148, "typical_volume": 278457.7, "trend": 180.928229, "fair_value": 203.165919, "relative_strength": -4.544158, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.322229, "energy": 17.931017, "activity_lines": [ 182.462001, 185.003637, 182.78462, 181.077244 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }