{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7917e26-ede0-421f-b9ce-da286899a6bb", "symbol": "EDEN", "name": "Eden Research plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.851, "architecture_energy": 83.519, "architecture_maturity": 28.523, "architecture_confidence": 85.443, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.52, "rotation_up": 10.05, "upward_expansion": 19.43, "deceleration": 37.34, "rotation_down": 81.31, "downward_expansion": 97.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0265, 0.027873, 0.030152, 0.031276 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0255, "trend_reference": 0.033183, "distance_from_trend": -0.231542, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.038853, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.343678, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.815491, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.346154, "excess_performance": -0.397389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.231542, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038602, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.343678, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158106, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.228155, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222186, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.346154, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.299084, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2528650, "relative_activity": 1.461471, "balance": 0.299084, "dry_up": 1.184091, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100754, "annualized_volatility": 0.354199, "from_high_reference": -0.49, "from_low_reference": 0.30102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.033183, "fair_value_reference": 0.038853, "structural_low": 0.024, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.029508, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.019552, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 1.575342, "worst_return": -0.244094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010991, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012161, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.25, "worst_return": -0.252669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.013593, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.082409, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.489796, "worst_return": -0.359431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.905613, "energy": 71.356469, "activity_lines": [ 0.0297, 0.031091, 0.032186, 0.033029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.029, "volume": 307531, "typical_volume": 1536492.65, "trend": 0.033567, "fair_value": 0.039611, "relative_strength": -11.853929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.527446, "energy": 73.638881, "activity_lines": [ 0.0293, 0.030518, 0.03184, 0.032739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.027, "volume": 2121622, "typical_volume": 1525997.6, "trend": 0.033567, "fair_value": 0.039303, "relative_strength": -18.357347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.154422, "energy": 77.503471, "activity_lines": [ 0.0284, 0.029673, 0.03134, 0.032315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0255, "volume": 3237099, "typical_volume": 1630414.85, "trend": 0.033533, "fair_value": 0.039066, "relative_strength": -23.209153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.242358, "energy": 83.58836, "activity_lines": [ 0.0273, 0.028691, 0.030731, 0.031795 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0255, "volume": 2528650, "typical_volume": 1730209.3, "trend": 0.033183, "fair_value": 0.038853, "relative_strength": -22.815491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.851292, "energy": 83.518519, "activity_lines": [ 0.0265, 0.027873, 0.030152, 0.031276 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }