{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f792d8b1-8e58-45b2-bd7c-190fa49c827d", "symbol": "S2M", "name": "S2Medical AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.972, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.251, "architecture_energy": 32.048, "architecture_maturity": 69.603, "architecture_confidence": 94.896, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.14, "rotation_up": 26.22, "upward_expansion": 15.9, "deceleration": 41.65, "rotation_down": 38.45, "downward_expansion": 65.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.00548, 0.005389, 0.005818, 0.006608 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.007687, "distance_from_trend": -0.219428, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.027955, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.785368, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -43.68018, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.459459, "excess_performance": -0.520954, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.219428, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17525, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.785368, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064167, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.436802, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059398, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.459459, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.699415, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7682145, "relative_activity": 0.653083, "balance": 0.699415, "dry_up": 0.656928, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.205128, "annualized_volatility": 0.783476, "from_high_reference": -0.664804, "from_low_reference": 0.428571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.007687, "fair_value_reference": 0.027955, "structural_low": 0.0042, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.067316, "positive_rate": 0.386364, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.072883, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 2.123759, "worst_return": -0.578128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.168677, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.331081, "worst_return": -0.548387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.337405, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.340035, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 3.440367, "worst_return": -0.922188, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -51.711757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.612069, "energy": 53.132746, "activity_lines": [ 0.00524, 0.005429, 0.006222, 0.007088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.005, "volume": 11391716, "typical_volume": 11239247.1, "trend": 0.00794, "fair_value": 0.030978, "relative_strength": -53.314004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.012384, "energy": 47.912391, "activity_lines": [ 0.00516, 0.00532, 0.006023, 0.006887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0054, "volume": 8424572, "typical_volume": 11549922.95, "trend": 0.007787, "fair_value": 0.029455, "relative_strength": -49.256579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.67268, "energy": 41.676678, "activity_lines": [ 0.005227, 0.005291, 0.005883, 0.006723 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 7682145, "typical_volume": 11762900.25, "trend": 0.007687, "fair_value": 0.027955, "relative_strength": -43.68018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.251493, "energy": 32.047795, "activity_lines": [ 0.00548, 0.005389, 0.005818, 0.006608 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }