{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f793046a-8fd0-4275-aba8-ffaa91707e91", "symbol": "BBUS", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - BetaBuilders US Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.023, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.943, "architecture_energy": 67.709, "architecture_maturity": 61.278, "architecture_confidence": 73.79, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.09, "rotation_up": 55.81, "upward_expansion": 82.24, "deceleration": 68.22, "rotation_down": 27.86, "downward_expansion": 11.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.709332, 71.303635, 70.627666, 69.255398 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 73.599998, "trend_reference": 67.701666, "distance_from_trend": 0.087122, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.548654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324965, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.798231, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.131785, "excess_performance": 0.048902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087122, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03314, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324965, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004116, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007982, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071455, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131785, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.178226, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 393, "relative_activity": 0.79186, "balance": 4.178226, "dry_up": 0.197965, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016179, "annualized_volatility": 0.13695, "from_high_reference": -0.001357, "from_low_reference": 0.219755 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.701666, "fair_value_reference": 55.548654, "structural_low": 60.759998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.010794, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.007868, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.060365, "worst_return": -0.095967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.049812, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.021903, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.101335, "worst_return": -0.081951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.084198, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.006742, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.211043, "worst_return": -0.167489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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68.953858, 67.827463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 71.720001, "volume": 818, "typical_volume": 582.35, "trend": 66.882334, "fair_value": 54.78609, "relative_strength": 0.225732, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.854494, "energy": 66.140701, "activity_lines": [ 70.956001, 70.89291, 69.371477, 68.154839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 70.989998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 476.65, "trend": 67.092333, "fair_value": 54.972436, "relative_strength": -1.536671, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.76097, "energy": 60.593492, "activity_lines": [ 71.05, 70.927818, 69.687667, 68.41985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.699997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 476.65, "trend": 67.274, "fair_value": 55.155, "relative_strength": -1.784093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.700704, "energy": 60.632519, "activity_lines": [ 70.975999, 70.891999, 69.947809, 68.652602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.459999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 476.65, "trend": 67.442667, "fair_value": 55.339808, "relative_strength": -2.172743, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.158226, "energy": 52.885108, "activity_lines": [ 70.844666, 70.807272, 70.155809, 68.85815 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.599998, "volume": 393, "typical_volume": 496.3, "trend": 67.701666, "fair_value": 55.548654, "relative_strength": 0.798231, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.94312, "energy": 67.70899, "activity_lines": [ 71.709332, 71.303635, 70.627666, 69.255398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }