{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7947d3b-7629-451b-8fb5-5c680546f42c", "symbol": "601228", "name": "Guangzhou Port Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.035, "architecture_energy": 28.044, "architecture_maturity": 86.484, "architecture_confidence": 71.923, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.05, "rotation_up": 32.71, "upward_expansion": 21.08, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 22.92, "downward_expansion": 57.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.047865, 2.999156, 3.042561, 3.131209 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.03, "trend_reference": 3.253014, "distance_from_trend": -0.068556, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.225129, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060503, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.58593, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.148876, "excess_performance": -0.105673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068556, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033854, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.060503, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079597, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075859, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025229, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148876, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.825679, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 128517005, "relative_activity": 1.208114, "balance": 0.825679, "dry_up": 1.266407, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039089, "annualized_volatility": 0.180517, "from_high_reference": -0.198413, "from_low_reference": 0.071067 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.253014, "fair_value_reference": 3.225129, "structural_low": 2.828954, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.032468, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.003179, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.141935, "worst_return": -0.054817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.051613, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.018494, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.148515, "worst_return": 0.016181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.08033, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.023416, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.12013, "worst_return": 0.069307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }