{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f79b39d5-9a27-4af6-8b44-5cd8ef24a77f", "symbol": "3228", "name": "RDC Semiconductor Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.834, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.217, "architecture_energy": 51.162, "architecture_maturity": 8.945, "architecture_confidence": 74.774, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.32, "rotation_up": 14.89, "upward_expansion": 26.4, "deceleration": 49.44, "rotation_down": 64.15, "downward_expansion": 53.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 147.066667, 156.745455, 170.292857, 166.933333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 149.0, "trend_reference": 158.816667, "distance_from_trend": -0.061811, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 220.83459, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.325287, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.806128, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.216327, "excess_performance": -0.225045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072602, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.325287, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16806, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.216327, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.779864, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1022736, "relative_activity": 0.302108, "balance": 0.779864, "dry_up": 0.35918, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161332, "annualized_volatility": 0.874009, "from_high_reference": -0.431298, "from_low_reference": 0.273504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 158.816667, "fair_value_reference": 220.83459, "structural_low": 120.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.104704, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.054983, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.155523, "worst_return": -0.140808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.160672, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.11919, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222384, "worst_return": -0.399112, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.199207, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.141159, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.238379, "worst_return": -0.49422, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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-21.962213, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.948887, "energy": 17.950454, "activity_lines": [ 180.1, 187.072727, 179.919048, 167.927957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 173.5, "volume": 1494827, "typical_volume": 3503401.25, "trend": 154.983333, "fair_value": 220.087552, "relative_strength": -22.077289, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.736301, "energy": 13.71503, "activity_lines": [ 178.5, 183.290909, 180.595238, 169.209677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 159.5, "volume": 1354581, "typical_volume": 3526392.4, "trend": 155.866667, "fair_value": 220.245724, "relative_strength": -22.743478, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.760709, "energy": 7.818895, "activity_lines": [ 172.7, 177.409091, 179.711905, 169.501075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 157.0, "volume": 793983, "typical_volume": 3376907.1, "trend": 156.75, "fair_value": 220.409633, "relative_strength": -24.572745, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.616796, "energy": 10.935599, "activity_lines": [ 166.133333, 172.572727, 178.442857, 169.574194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 140.5, "volume": 1876012, "typical_volume": 3421263.85, "trend": 157.25, "fair_value": 220.505079, "relative_strength": -30.63394, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.493836, "energy": 31.515276, "activity_lines": [ 155.833333, 165.5, 175.485714, 168.525806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 141.5, "volume": 1171043, "typical_volume": 3400535.9, "trend": 157.933333, "fair_value": 220.631806, "relative_strength": -30.897351, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.41775, "energy": 49.227268, "activity_lines": [ 148.866667, 159.9, 172.57381, 167.509677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 149.0, "volume": 1022736, "typical_volume": 3385327.55, "trend": 158.816667, "fair_value": 220.83459, "relative_strength": -28.806128, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.216512, "energy": 51.161921, "activity_lines": [ 147.066667, 156.745455, 170.292857, 166.933333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }