{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f79bb530-a78e-4a8c-a5e6-b0d0dff44c4b", "symbol": "AWK", "name": "American Water Works Company, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.964, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.778, "architecture_energy": 61.24, "architecture_maturity": 9.153, "architecture_confidence": 62.39, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.29, "rotation_up": 69.09, "upward_expansion": 85.64, "deceleration": 47.14, "rotation_down": 9.9, "downward_expansion": 12.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 117.616665, 116.355453, 113.606972, 113.419408 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 117.199997, "trend_reference": 112.755644, "distance_from_trend": 0.039416, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 115.324666, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.016261, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.164796, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.125373, "excess_performance": -0.048873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039416, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012127, "read": "Rising" 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101.592257, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.009962, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001782, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.120531, "worst_return": -0.129607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.055073, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032731, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.091974, "worst_return": -0.112755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004904, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.030969, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.124873, "worst_return": -0.049208, "sufficient": 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115.476039, "relative_strength": -24.273603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.30686, "energy": 34.928777, "activity_lines": [ 107.863334, 108.022835, 110.673941, 110.974777 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 115.5, "volume": 166, "typical_volume": 121.4, "trend": 111.225933, "fair_value": 115.451215, "relative_strength": -17.86268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.660491, "energy": 14.273601, "activity_lines": [ 110.58, 109.266159, 111.032293, 111.261405 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 118.099998, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": 122.65, "trend": 111.509142, "fair_value": 115.440688, "relative_strength": -17.464922, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.533838, "energy": 31.840322, "activity_lines": [ 113.603333, 110.859154, 111.584184, 111.704893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 114.099998, "volume": 489, "typical_volume": 130.8, "trend": 111.632781, "fair_value": 115.406889, "relative_strength": -18.653677, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.032769, "energy": 35.075443, "activity_lines": [ 114.413332, 111.651909, 111.719248, 111.872045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 118.849998, "volume": 283, "typical_volume": 140.45, "trend": 111.886877, "fair_value": 115.377479, "relative_strength": -13.05698, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.69556, "energy": 62.187425, "activity_lines": [ 116.346665, 113.293635, 112.28491, 112.337672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 117.949997, "volume": 102, "typical_volume": 132.5, "trend": 112.170006, "fair_value": 115.338746, "relative_strength": -14.391082, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.058219, "energy": 71.712437, "activity_lines": [ 117.276664, 114.53818, 112.747841, 112.728841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 118.150002, "volume": 263, "typical_volume": 139.6, "trend": 112.476199, "fair_value": 115.332094, "relative_strength": -13.563608, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.657598, "energy": 64.578989, "activity_lines": [ 117.693332, 115.633636, 113.215202, 113.114647 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 117.199997, "volume": 175, "typical_volume": 146.25, "trend": 112.755644, "fair_value": 115.324666, "relative_strength": -16.164796, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.778455, "energy": 61.239952, "activity_lines": [ 117.616665, 116.355453, 113.606972, 113.419408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }