{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f79eb6e9-361b-4f70-81f6-e01feb608799", "symbol": "002271", "name": "Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.052, "architecture_energy": 56.635, "architecture_maturity": 39.411, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 24.49, "upward_expansion": 9.97, "deceleration": 51.14, "rotation_down": 53.04, "downward_expansion": 80.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.448667, 11.610909, 12.573619, 13.439355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.61, "trend_reference": 14.468333, "distance_from_trend": -0.197558, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.300241, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127084, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.666786, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.328125, "excess_performance": -0.335525, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197558, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02934, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127084, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277393, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190209, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.328125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.28251, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 176145506, "relative_activity": 0.949198, "balance": 0.28251, "dry_up": 1.194374, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093818, "annualized_volatility": 0.3671, "from_high_reference": -0.396883, "from_low_reference": 0.111005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.468333, "fair_value_reference": 13.300241, "structural_low": 10.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.022423, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.023351, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.217088, "worst_return": -0.206914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.053763, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.00449, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.235148, "worst_return": -0.286252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026151, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.133989, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.173031, "worst_return": -0.305376, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 11.284, 11.753636, 12.955048, 13.80372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.88, "volume": 192124141, "typical_volume": 188123196.9, "trend": 14.534333, "fair_value": 13.365378, "relative_strength": -11.546394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.179764, "energy": 60.401966, "activity_lines": [ 11.410667, 11.686545, 12.766714, 13.628022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.61, "volume": 176145506, "typical_volume": 185572955.35, "trend": 14.468333, "fair_value": 13.300241, "relative_strength": -17.666786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.051581, "energy": 56.635404, "activity_lines": [ 11.448667, 11.610909, 12.573619, 13.439355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }