{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7a31535-691b-455b-8cf0-3072f23e5c14", "symbol": "HSTE", "name": "HSBC Hang Seng Tech UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.727, "architecture_energy": 16.265, "architecture_maturity": 27.98, "architecture_confidence": 50.841, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.14, "rotation_up": 39.83, "upward_expansion": 26.59, "deceleration": 40.98, "rotation_down": 17.57, "downward_expansion": 49.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.809267, 5.705545, 5.725733, 5.780368 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.921, "trend_reference": 5.933333, "distance_from_trend": -0.002079, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.107583, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.030549, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.256912, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.077582, "excess_performance": -0.130894, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002079, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.030549, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.262569, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077582, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.946818, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 294679, "relative_activity": 0.555751, "balance": 0.946818, "dry_up": 0.536147, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039481, "annualized_volatility": 0.221615, "from_high_reference": -0.910278, "from_low_reference": 0.141508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.933333, "fair_value_reference": 6.107583, "structural_low": 5.187, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.002635, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.004901, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.164617, "worst_return": -0.140947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.037681, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.039307, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.072861, "worst_return": -0.134876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.064015, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.150184, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.48224, "worst_return": -0.146503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.096521, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.145827, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.068576, "worst_return": -0.126116, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151601, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055085, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045117, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02291, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102383, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036979, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089489, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021635, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083297, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105617, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025801, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.067675, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.987, "volume": 46996, "typical_volume": 78657.9, "trend": 5.187933, "fair_value": 7.352172, "relative_strength": -7.290191, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.188823, "energy": 25.238131, "activity_lines": [ 5.635933, 5.619345, 5.698757, 5.792465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.855, "volume": 342150, "typical_volume": 600679.05, "trend": 5.965133, "fair_value": 6.102981, "relative_strength": -25.569001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.949266, "energy": 18.73316, "activity_lines": [ 5.730067, 5.657255, 5.708633, 5.783215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.921, "volume": 294679, "typical_volume": 530235.65, "trend": 5.933333, "fair_value": 6.107583, "relative_strength": -26.256912, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.726874, "energy": 16.265412, "activity_lines": [ 5.809267, 5.705545, 5.725733, 5.780368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }