{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7a9a348-f009-4863-bbc9-f2dfbb567694", "symbol": "PSM", "name": "ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.124, "architecture_energy": 25.686, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.124, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.18, "rotation_up": 29.94, "upward_expansion": 18.5, "deceleration": 44.06, "rotation_down": 29.68, "downward_expansion": 63.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.678133, 3.628473, 3.719779, 3.84698 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.896, "trend_reference": 4.078215, "distance_from_trend": -0.04468, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.641891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.309451, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.825747, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.174472, "excess_performance": -0.348718, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04468, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090503, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.309451, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036726, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.348257, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072459, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174472, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.712716, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11947, "relative_activity": 2.732898, "balance": 1.712716, "dry_up": 2.091592, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05394, "annualized_volatility": 0.345268, "from_high_reference": -0.533842, "from_low_reference": 0.162985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.078215, "fair_value_reference": 5.641891, "structural_low": 3.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.02317, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.043865, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 0.239761, "worst_return": -0.217812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.06342, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.13375, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.181335, "worst_return": -0.274638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.21163, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.182946, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.25924, "worst_return": -0.347454, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007732, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034547, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126271, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", 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"relative_strength": -34.825747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.124332, "energy": 25.685603, "activity_lines": [ 3.678133, 3.628473, 3.719779, 3.84698 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }