{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7ad7af4-6aa4-4f4f-b7a6-0b248ef8ae6f", "symbol": "ZWP", "name": "BMO Europe High Dividend Covered Call ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.96, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.033, "architecture_energy": 52.538, "architecture_maturity": 23.12, "architecture_confidence": 74.383, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.42, "rotation_up": 55.85, "upward_expansion": 78.3, "deceleration": 58.95, "rotation_down": 21.35, "downward_expansion": 7.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.040109, 20.941825, 20.686923, 20.47493 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.370001, "trend_reference": 20.306261, "distance_from_trend": 0.052385, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.352199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231544, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.225889, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.040687, "excess_performance": -0.079734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052385, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022427, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231544, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028914, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042259, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02152, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040687, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.708466, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68000, "relative_activity": 0.992556, "balance": 1.708466, "dry_up": 0.904248, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020778, "annualized_volatility": 0.159101, "from_high_reference": -0.01019, "from_low_reference": 0.187783 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.306261, "fair_value_reference": 17.352199, "structural_low": 18.667469, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.01441, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.008557, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.080004, "worst_return": -0.110457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.021118, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.029574, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.09167, "worst_return": -0.052536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.049945, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.029699, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.135952, "worst_return": -0.152346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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20.721192, 20.436552, 20.310341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.69021, "volume": 66200, "typical_volume": 73620.0, "trend": 20.223353, "fair_value": 17.25957, "relative_strength": -4.975351, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.259901, "energy": 37.926637, "activity_lines": [ 20.743926, 20.737987, 20.490357, 20.342726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.17, "volume": 62500, "typical_volume": 69725.0, "trend": 20.267482, "fair_value": 17.305773, "relative_strength": -2.206813, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.285188, "energy": 42.248832, "activity_lines": [ 20.874677, 20.829238, 20.583786, 20.4038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.370001, "volume": 68000, "typical_volume": 68510.0, "trend": 20.306261, "fair_value": 17.352199, "relative_strength": -4.225889, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.033168, "energy": 52.537612, "activity_lines": [ 21.040109, 20.941825, 20.686923, 20.47493 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }