{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f7b2098d-5953-468e-838c-4c51095a5a23", "symbol": "SUNDARAM", "name": "Sundaram Multi Pap Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.886, "architecture_energy": 66.659, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.394, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.84, "rotation_up": 12.5, "upward_expansion": 14.01, "deceleration": 38.4, "rotation_down": 73.28, "downward_expansion": 92.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.25, 1.280364, 1.323238, 1.344151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.23, "trend_reference": 1.397667, "distance_from_trend": -0.119962, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.347628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.476067, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.28081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.240741, "excess_performance": -0.197032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119962, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106161, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.476067, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0704, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222808, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050497, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.240741, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.178074, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2152884, "relative_activity": 1.021269, "balance": 0.178074, "dry_up": 0.922216, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068793, "annualized_volatility": 0.322505, "from_high_reference": -0.483193, "from_low_reference": 0.108108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.397667, "fair_value_reference": 2.347628, "structural_low": 1.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.021016, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.676471, "median_excess_return": -0.017649, "regime_survival": 0.911765, "best_return": 0.44186, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.084623, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030074, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.522727, "worst_return": -0.254545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.153571, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.230307, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.363636, "worst_return": -0.391753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.280702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061538, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.156364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.276667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.1032, "energy": 47.642667, "activity_lines": [ 1.320667, 1.343455, 1.357524, 1.391957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.28, "volume": 1064065, "typical_volume": 2332419.15, "trend": 1.449333, "fair_value": 2.364679, "relative_strength": -20.633198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.783659, "energy": 54.64715, "activity_lines": [ 1.301333, 1.328364, 1.35019, 1.380043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.28, "volume": 2053611, "typical_volume": 2254134.05, "trend": 1.433, "fair_value": 2.359103, "relative_strength": -17.990694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.866936, "energy": 54.728072, "activity_lines": [ 1.288667, 1.316182, 1.343952, 1.369118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.23, "volume": 2505741, "typical_volume": 2157464.35, "trend": 1.414, "fair_value": 2.353526, "relative_strength": -22.426469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.31862, "energy": 57.313059, "activity_lines": [ 1.265333, 1.296727, 1.333524, 1.356022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.23, "volume": 2152884, "typical_volume": 2108047.0, "trend": 1.397667, "fair_value": 2.347628, "relative_strength": -22.28081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.885938, "energy": 66.658791, "activity_lines": [ 1.25, 1.280364, 1.323238, 1.344151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }